Sandefjord 2-5 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rosenborg at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sandefjord vs Rosenborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 18 as Sandefjord welcome Rosenborg to Release Arena. Kick-off is set for Friday 12 August 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sandefjord — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Release Arena, Sandefjord have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Release Arena this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rosenborg stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rosenborg's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Rosenborg's 2.10 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Sandefjord's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Sandefjord, 2 for Rosenborg and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2022, ended 0–3 with Rosenborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sandefjord in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Rosenborg in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 29% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sandefjord 57% and Rosenborg 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sandefjord 70% | Rosenborg 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.57 xG and Rosenborg 1.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 1.013 / defence 1.318 | Rosenborg attack 1.085 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.704 / away 1.329. Data: 47 Sandefjord games / 47 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 32% | Draw 22% | Rosenborg 46%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 3.12 | Draw 4.55 | Rosenborg 2.17. Rosenborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.90) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rosenborg at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rosenborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.48 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sandefjord 90% | Rosenborg 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Release Arena • Kick-off: Friday 12 Aug 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 32% | Draw 22% | Rosenborg 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 68% | xG Sandefjord 1.57 / Rosenborg 1.90 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 1.013 / def 1.318 | Rosenborg attack 1.085 / def 0.912 | league avg home 1.704 / away 1.329 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.90
Rosenborg xG
68%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Rosenborg kick off?
Sandefjord vs Rosenborg kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 12 August 2022 at Release Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Rosenborg?
Sandefjord 2 - 5 Rosenborg.
Where is Sandefjord vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Release Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Rosenborg part of?
Sandefjord vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 32% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 46% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Sandefjord and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Rosenborg?
Record (2 meetings): Sandefjord 0W | Draws 0 | Rosenborg 2W.
What form are Sandefjord and Rosenborg in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Rosenborg (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sandefjord's attack at 1.01x the league average against Rosenborg's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rosenborg's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 1.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
32%
3.11
22%
4.47
46%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
3.48
1.90
Rosenborg xG
3.11
32%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
2.20
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.08
Clean Sheet
15%
6.70
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
5%
20.86
9%
10.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.3 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.90 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sandefjord's recent record stands at 16W 9D 22L from 47 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rosenborg, meanwhile, have gone 21W 16D 10L across 47 games — 1.68 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rosenborg by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sandefjord heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sandefjord have managed 7W 8D 8L from 23 games — 1.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rosenborg's away record stands at 7W 9D 7L across 23 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Sandefjord are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.89 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg in 66%.
Last 47 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Blended
Rosenborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 16W 9D 22L in their last 47 games (1.21 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 21W 16D 10L in their last 47 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Rosenborg away?
Rosenborg's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.26 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Oct 2021, when Rosenborg won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sandefjord's record when hosting Rosenborg specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sandefjord
3
Draws
5
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Rosenborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 2, Rosenborg have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Sandefjord 0-0 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Rosenborg?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 26% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sandefjord at 61%, Rosenborg at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Sandefjord and 70% for Rosenborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandefjord keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Rosenborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Sandefjord's games and 74% of Rosenborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sandefjord vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Sandefjord's matches and 70% of Rosenborg's.
Do Sandefjord and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rosenborg run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Sandefjord.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Sandefjord 2-5 at Release Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.57 xG and Rosenborg 1.90 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Rosenborg outscored their 1.90 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 1.01 / defence 1.32 against Rosenborg attack 1.08 / defence 0.91, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 32% | Draw 22% | Rosenborg 46%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 70%, Rosenborg 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Rosenborg's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sandefjord (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rosenborg (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.