Sandefjord 2-2 Viking – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Viking at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandefjord vs Viking fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 17 as Sandefjord welcome Viking to Release Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 7 August 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sandefjord stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandefjord at Release Arena this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Viking have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Viking have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Sandefjord) versus 1.20 (Viking). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Sandefjord, 1 for Viking and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Jun 2022, ended 2–1 with Sandefjord winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sandefjord in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Viking in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sandefjord 56% and Viking 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sandefjord 70% | Viking 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 2.05 xG and Viking 2.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 1.040 / defence 1.334 | Viking attack 1.202 / defence 1.187. League average goals — home 1.661 / away 1.339. Viking have an above-average attack strength of 1.202 — the away xG of 2.15 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 46 Sandefjord games / 47 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 38% | Draw 20% | Viking 42%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 2.63 | Draw 5.00 | Viking 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 20% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 77% | Total xG 4.20. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.20 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 77% reflects that both xG figures (2.05 / 2.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Viking as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 4.20 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 79% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 77% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sandefjord 80% | Viking 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Release Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Aug 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 38% | Draw 20% | Viking 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% | BTTS 77% | xG Sandefjord 2.05 / Viking 2.15 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 1.040 / def 1.334 | Viking attack 1.202 / def 1.187 | league avg home 1.661 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: Viking (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
2.15
Viking xG
77%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Viking kick off?
Sandefjord vs Viking kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 7 August 2022 at Release Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Viking?
Sandefjord 2 - 2 Viking.
Where is Sandefjord vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Release Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Viking part of?
Sandefjord vs Viking is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 38% chance of winning, Viking a 42% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 77% probability that both Sandefjord and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Viking?
Record (2 meetings): Sandefjord 1W | Draws 0 | Viking 1W.
What form are Sandefjord and Viking in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Viking (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sandefjord's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Viking's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.05. The same calculation in reverse, Viking's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 2.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 7.5%. Close behind: 2-2 (7.3%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
38%
2.62
20%
4.97
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 2
7.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
2 – 1
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
4.20
2.15
Viking xG
2.62
38%
Home win
4.97
20%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
60%
Over 3.5
1.67
40%
Under 3.5
2.50
41%
Over 4.5
2.44
59%
Under 4.5
1.69
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
77%
BTTS Yes
1.30
23%
BTTS No
4.34
Clean Sheet
12%
8.56
13%
7.78
Win to Nil
4%
22.45
5%
18.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 3.1 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.5%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for Sandefjord and 2.15 for Viking, a combined total of 4.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sandefjord come into this having played 46 games, going 16W 8D 22L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-L. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Viking sit at 1.78 PPG from 46 outings (24W 10D 12L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Viking carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.56 PPG clear of Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Sandefjord's home form reads 7W 7D 8L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Viking have taken 1.68 points per game from 22 outings (11W 4D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Viking come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sandefjord are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 1.89 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking in 72%.
Last 46 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Blended
Viking
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Viking in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 16W 8D 22L in their last 46 games (1.22 PPG), while Viking have gone 24W 10D 12L in their last 46 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Viking away?
Viking's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.27 PPG; Viking away: 1.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Viking have taken the last 7 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 May 2024, when Viking won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sandefjord's record when hosting Viking specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Sandefjord
1
Draws
8
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Viking?
From 10 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 1, Viking have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Viking 2-1 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandefjord 59%, Viking 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Sandefjord and 64% for Viking. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandefjord keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Viking?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Sandefjord's games and 68% of Viking's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sandefjord vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Sandefjord's matches and 64% of Viking's.
Do Sandefjord and Viking tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Viking in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sandefjord and Viking share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandefjord and Viking finished level at 2-2 at Release Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 2.05 xG and Viking 2.15 xG, a combined 4.20. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 1.04 / defence 1.33 against Viking attack 1.20 / defence 1.19, drawn from 46/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 38% | Draw 20% | Viking 42%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 60% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 77% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 70%, Viking 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Viking's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.