Haugesund 3-1 jerv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Haugesund at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Haugesund vs jerv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 17 as Haugesund welcome jerv to Haugesund Sparebank Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 7 August 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Haugesund — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Haugesund have posted 3W 2D 5L at Haugesund Sparebank Arena — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, jerv stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for jerv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, jerv have gone 0W 2D 6L from 8 away fixtures this term (0.25 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.88 conceded per game.
Haugesund carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Haugesund, 1 for jerv and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 2 Jul 2022, ended 0–1 with jerv winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Haugesund in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
jerv in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 65% versus jerv 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 59% | jerv 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 2.36 xG and jerv 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 1.079 / defence 1.103 | jerv attack 0.735 / defence 1.315. League average goals — home 1.661 / away 1.339. jerv bring a strong defensive rating of 1.315 — this is suppressing Haugesund's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Haugesund games / 16 jerv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 66% | Draw 18% | jerv 16%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 1.52 | Draw 5.56 | jerv 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Haugesund (66%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.36 / 1.09) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Haugesund at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.44 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Haugesund 80% | jerv 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs jerv | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Haugesund Sparebank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Aug 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 66% | Draw 18% | jerv 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 60% | xG Haugesund 2.36 / jerv 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 1.079 / def 1.103 | jerv attack 0.735 / def 1.315 | league avg home 1.661 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.36
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.09
jerv xG
60%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs jerv kick off?
Haugesund vs jerv kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 7 August 2022 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs jerv?
Haugesund 3 - 1 jerv.
Where is Haugesund vs jerv being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What competition is Haugesund vs jerv part of?
Haugesund vs jerv is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs jerv?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 66% chance of winning, jerv a 16% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs jerv?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Haugesund and jerv will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs jerv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and jerv?
Record (1 meetings): Haugesund 0W | Draws 0 | jerv 1W.
What form are Haugesund and jerv in?
Haugesund (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. jerv (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Haugesund's attack at 1.08x the league average against jerv's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 2.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, jerv's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.2%), 2-0 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
66%
1.52
18%
5.44
16%
6.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.9%
Home win
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.36
Haugesund xG
Total xG
3.44
1.09
jerv xG
1.52
66%
Home win
5.44
18%
Draw
6.25
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
9%
10.56
Win to Nil
22%
4.51
2%
65.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.5 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs jerv?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Haugesund and jerv expected to score?
The model projects 2.36 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.09 for jerv, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs jerv?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 17 outings, Haugesund have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 4W 4D 9L record — W-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
jerv's form line: 3W 3D 11L from 17 games, 0.71 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-L. The sample for jerv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Haugesund on 0.94 PPG, jerv on 0.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Haugesund have posted 1.38 PPG from 8 outings (3W 2D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 0.94 PPG overall — Haugesund are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, jerv have gone 0W 2D 6L from 8 away games — 0.25 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.71 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of jerv's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Haugesund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Haugesund are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; jerv are on 0.94 scored and 2.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Haugesund have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 17 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Blended
jerv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and jerv in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 4W 4D 9L in their last 17 games (0.94 PPG), while jerv have gone 3W 3D 11L in their last 17 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or jerv away?
Haugesund's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.38 PPG; jerv away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Haugesund
0
Draws
1
jerv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and jerv?
From 2 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 1, jerv have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and jerv last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2022, when Haugesund 3-1 jerv.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
jerv see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 75%, jerv 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Haugesund and 75% for jerv. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: jerv in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / jerv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play jerv?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Haugesund's games and 50% of jerv's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haugesund vs jerv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Haugesund's matches and 75% of jerv's.
Do Haugesund and jerv tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, jerv in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Haugesund cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over jerv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haugesund beat jerv 3-1 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 2.36 xG and jerv 1.09 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 1.08 / defence 1.10 against jerv attack 0.73 / defence 1.31, drawn from 46/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 66% | Draw 18% | jerv 16%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 59%, jerv 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
jerv's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haugesund 0.94 PPG, jerv 0.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Haugesund win broke the near-deadlock. Haugesund (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.