Stromsgodset 1-2 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stromsgodset at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stromsgodset vs Haugesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Marienlyst Stadion plays host to Stromsgodset versus Haugesund in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Saturday 29 October 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Stromsgodset's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Marienlyst Stadion, Stromsgodset have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Stromsgodset are significantly better at Marienlyst Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Haugesund have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Haugesund have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Haugesund arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Stromsgodset, 1 for Haugesund and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2022, ended 1–0 with Stromsgodset winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Stromsgodset half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Haugesund half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stromsgodset 51% versus Haugesund 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stromsgodset 63% | Haugesund 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 1.82 xG and Haugesund 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 1.163 / defence 1.027 | Haugesund attack 0.771 / defence 0.888. League average goals — home 1.760 / away 1.356. Data: 57 Stromsgodset games / 57 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 55% | Draw 23% | Haugesund 22%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | Haugesund 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Stromsgodset (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stromsgodset are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Haugesund (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Stromsgodset 70% | Haugesund 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Oct 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 55% | Draw 23% | Haugesund 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 55% | xG Stromsgodset 1.82 / Haugesund 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 1.163 / def 1.027 | Haugesund attack 0.771 / def 0.888 | league avg home 1.760 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: Stromsgodset (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Haugesund xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stromsgodset vs Haugesund kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Haugesund kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 29 October 2022 at Marienlyst Stadion.
What was the final score in Stromsgodset vs Haugesund?
Stromsgodset 1 - 2 Haugesund.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Haugesund part of?
Stromsgodset vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 55% chance of winning, Haugesund a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Stromsgodset the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Stromsgodset and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Stromsgodset vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Haugesund?
Record (3 meetings): Stromsgodset 1W | Draws 1 | Haugesund 1W.
What form are Stromsgodset and Haugesund in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Haugesund (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Stromsgodset's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Haugesund's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. Flip it around — Haugesund's attack (0.77x) against Stromsgodset's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
55%
1.82
23%
4.36
22%
4.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
2.89
1.07
Haugesund xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
4.50
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
16%
6.15
Win to Nil
19%
5.34
4%
27.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 10.8 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 1.07 for Haugesund, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Haugesund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 57 outings, Stromsgodset have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 18W 15D 24L record — W-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Haugesund's form line: 18W 14D 25L from 57 games, 1.19 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-L. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Stromsgodset against 1.19 for Haugesund. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Stromsgodset have posted 1.82 PPG from 28 outings (15W 6D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — Stromsgodset are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Haugesund have gone 4W 8D 16L from 28 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Haugesund's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stromsgodset come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.46 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Blended
Haugesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stromsgodset and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 18W 15D 24L in their last 57 games (1.21 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 18W 14D 25L in their last 57 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or Haugesund away?
Stromsgodset's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.82 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 3 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Stromsgodset go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Stromsgodset won 0-5 on 6 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stromsgodset have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Haugesund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Stromsgodset
2
Draws
4
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Haugesund?
From 10 meetings on record, Stromsgodset have won 4, Haugesund have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 3 August 2025, when Stromsgodset 2-0 Haugesund.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stromsgodset 61%, Haugesund 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Stromsgodset and 50% for Haugesund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stromsgodset keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Haugesund in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stromsgodset play Haugesund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Stromsgodset's games and 54% of Haugesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stromsgodset vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Stromsgodset's matches and 50% of Haugesund's.
Do Stromsgodset and Haugesund tend to score early?
Stromsgodset have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Haugesund defy the odds to beat Stromsgodset 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haugesund beat Stromsgodset 1-2 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 1.82 xG and Haugesund 1.07 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Stromsgodset fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Haugesund outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 1.16 / defence 1.03 against Haugesund attack 0.77 / defence 0.89, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 55% | Draw 23% | Haugesund 22%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Haugesund win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 63%, Haugesund 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Haugesund's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stromsgodset 1.21 PPG, Haugesund 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Haugesund win broke the near-deadlock. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Haugesund (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.