Viking 3-1 ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Viking at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Viking vs ODD Ballklubb encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Viking host ODD Ballklubb at SR-Bank Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 5 December 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Viking have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at SR-Bank Arena, Viking have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
ODD Ballklubb — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
ODD Ballklubb's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Viking have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
ODD Ballklubb have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 3 encounters against Viking's 0 victories.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Jul 2021, ended 2–3 with ODD Ballklubb winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. ODD Ballklubb have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Viking trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 82% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
ODD Ballklubb trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Viking 69% and ODD Ballklubb 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Viking 74% | ODD Ballklubb 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 1.93 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.123 / defence 1.124 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.862 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.742 / away 1.230. Data: 58 Viking games / 58 ODD Ballklubb games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Viking 52% | Draw 27% | ODD Ballklubb 21%. Fair-value odds: Viking 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | ODD Ballklubb 4.76. Viking hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.93 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
ODD Ballklubb lead the H2H ledger, but Viking carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Viking as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Viking offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Viking 100% | ODD Ballklubb 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Dec 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 52% | Draw 27% | ODD Ballklubb 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Viking 1.93 / ODD Ballklubb 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.123 / def 1.124 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.862 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.742 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Viking (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Viking xG
Expected Goals
1.19
ODD Ballklubb xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Viking vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 5 December 2021 at SR-Bank Arena.
What was the final score in Viking vs ODD Ballklubb?
Viking 3 - 1 ODD Ballklubb.
Where is Viking vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Viking vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 52% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Viking and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and ODD Ballklubb?
Record (3 meetings): Viking 0W | Draws 0 | ODD Ballklubb 3W.
What form are Viking and ODD Ballklubb in?
Viking (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Viking's attack at 1.12x the league average against ODD Ballklubb's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.93 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, ODD Ballklubb's attack versus Viking's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
52%
1.93
27%
3.66
21%
4.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Viking xG
Total xG
3.12
1.19
ODD Ballklubb xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
4.81
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
15%
6.86
Win to Nil
16%
6.35
3%
32.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 10.2 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Viking and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Viking and 1.19 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs ODD Ballklubb?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Viking come into this having played 58 games, going 27W 14D 17L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-W.
On the other side, ODD Ballklubb sit at 1.26 PPG from 58 outings (20W 13D 25L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Viking on 1.64 PPG, ODD Ballklubb on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Viking's home form reads 15W 7D 7L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.79 PPG return.
Away from home, ODD Ballklubb have taken 1.07 points per game from 29 outings (8W 7D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Viking come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Viking are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; ODD Ballklubb are on 1.59 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; ODD Ballklubb in 60%.
Last 58 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Current Season
ODD Ballklubb
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Viking and ODD Ballklubb in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 27W 14D 17L in their last 58 games (1.64 PPG), while ODD Ballklubb have gone 20W 13D 25L in their last 58 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or ODD Ballklubb away?
Viking's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 1.79 PPG; ODD Ballklubb away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 October 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Nov 2020, when ODD Ballklubb won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Viking's record when hosting ODD Ballklubb specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Viking
4
Draws
4
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and ODD Ballklubb?
From 10 meetings on record, Viking have won 2, ODD Ballklubb have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Viking and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 20 October 2024, when Viking 3-3 ODD Ballklubb.
Who has won more matches between Viking and ODD Ballklubb?
ODD Ballklubb have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Viking 79%, ODD Ballklubb 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Viking and 52% for ODD Ballklubb. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: ODD Ballklubb in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Viking play ODD Ballklubb?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of Viking's games and 48% of ODD Ballklubb's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Viking vs ODD Ballklubb usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Viking's matches and 52% of ODD Ballklubb's.
Do Viking and ODD Ballklubb tend to score early?
Viking have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, ODD Ballklubb in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Viking cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over ODD Ballklubb.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat ODD Ballklubb 3-1 at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 1.93 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.19 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Viking beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.12 / defence 1.12 against ODD Ballklubb attack 0.86 / defence 0.98, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Viking 52% | Draw 27% | ODD Ballklubb 21%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 74%, ODD Ballklubb 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Viking 1.64 PPG, ODD Ballklubb 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Viking win broke the near-deadlock. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.