Mjondalen 0-1 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Viking (37%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Mjondalen face Viking.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mjondalen host Viking at Consto Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 7 November 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Mjondalen — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mjondalen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mjondalen have posted 2W 3D 5L at Consto Arena — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Viking stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Viking have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Viking's 2.00 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Mjondalen's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Mjondalen, 2 for Viking and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 May 2021, ended 1–2 with Viking winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Mjondalen in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Viking in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 89% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mjondalen 53% and Viking 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjondalen 49% | Viking 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjondalen 1.44 xG and Viking 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjondalen attack 0.969 / defence 1.021 | Viking attack 1.222 / defence 0.818. League average goals — home 1.816 / away 1.211. Viking have an above-average attack strength of 1.222 — the away xG of 1.51 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 55 Mjondalen games / 55 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjondalen 34% | Draw 29% | Viking 37%. Fair-value odds: Mjondalen 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Viking 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.44 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Viking are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Viking offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Mjondalen 80% | Viking 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjondalen vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Consto Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjondalen 34% | Draw 29% | Viking 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 62% | xG Mjondalen 1.44 / Viking 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Mjondalen attack 0.969 / def 1.021 | Viking attack 1.222 / def 0.818 | league avg home 1.816 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Viking (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Mjondalen xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Viking xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjondalen vs Viking kick off?
Mjondalen vs Viking kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Consto Arena.
What was the final score in Mjondalen vs Viking?
Mjondalen 0 - 1 Viking.
Where is Mjondalen vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Consto Arena.
What competition is Mjondalen vs Viking part of?
Mjondalen vs Viking is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Mjondalen vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Mjondalen a 34% chance of winning, Viking a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjondalen vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Mjondalen and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Mjondalen vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Viking?
Record (3 meetings): Mjondalen 0W | Draws 1 | Viking 2W.
What form are Mjondalen and Viking in?
Mjondalen (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Viking (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Mjondalen's attack rating (0.97) and Viking's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Viking's attack versus Mjondalen's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
34%
2.95
29%
3.45
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Mjondalen xG
Total xG
2.95
1.51
Viking xG
2.95
34%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
22%
4.53
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
7%
13.36
9%
11.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.9 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.4 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.2 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjondalen vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Mjondalen and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Mjondalen and 1.51 for Viking, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjondalen vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mjondalen's recent record stands at 12W 12D 31L from 55 games, a 0.87 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Mjondalen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Viking, meanwhile, have gone 25W 13D 17L across 55 games — 1.60 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Viking by 0.73 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mjondalen heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Mjondalen have managed 8W 5D 14L from 27 games — 1.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Viking's away record stands at 10W 7D 10L across 27 trips, a 1.37 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Mjondalen are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 1.89 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking in 69%.
Last 55 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjondalen
Blended
Viking
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjondalen and Viking in coming into this match?
Mjondalen have gone 12W 12D 31L in their last 55 games (0.87 PPG), while Viking have gone 25W 13D 17L in their last 55 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjondalen at home or Viking away?
Viking's away record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjondalen at home: 1.07 PPG; Viking away: 1.37 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Viking go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Mjondalen's record when hosting Viking specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Mjondalen
1
Draws
3
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Viking?
From 4 meetings on record, Mjondalen have won 0, Viking have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mjondalen and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 7 November 2021, when Mjondalen 0-1 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Mjondalen and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjondalen 52%, Viking 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for Mjondalen and 74% for Viking. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Viking in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjondalen home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjondalen play Viking?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Mjondalen's games and 59% of Viking's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mjondalen vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Mjondalen's matches and 74% of Viking's.
Do Mjondalen and Viking tend to score early?
Mjondalen have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Viking in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Viking edge out Mjondalen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Mjondalen 0-1 at Consto Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjondalen 1.44 xG and Viking 1.51 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Mjondalen fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjondalen attack 0.97 / defence 1.02 against Viking attack 1.22 / defence 0.82, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjondalen 34% | Draw 29% | Viking 37%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjondalen 49%, Viking 76%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjondalen's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Viking's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.87. That form edge translated into the three points. Mjondalen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Viking (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.