Mjondalen 1-3 Molde – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Molde at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mjondalen vs Molde encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Molde travel to Consto Arena to take on Mjondalen. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 November 2020, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mjondalen stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Mjondalen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjondalen at Consto Arena this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Molde — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Molde, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Molde's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Molde's 1.50 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Mjondalen's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Mjondalen, 1 for Molde and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Jul 2020, ended 1–2 with Molde winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Mjondalen trading profile (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Molde trading profile (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjondalen 41% versus Molde 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjondalen 41% | Molde 86%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjondalen 1.13 xG and Molde 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjondalen attack 0.680 / defence 1.133 | Molde attack 1.085 / defence 1.217. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 1.359. Mjondalen's attack strength of 0.680 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Molde bring a strong defensive rating of 1.217 — this is suppressing Mjondalen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Mjondalen games / 22 Molde games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjondalen 26% | Draw 25% | Molde 50%. Fair-value odds: Mjondalen 3.85 | Draw 4.00 | Molde 2.00. Molde hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Molde as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Molde offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Mjondalen 30% | Molde 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjondalen vs Molde | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Consto Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2020, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjondalen 26% | Draw 25% | Molde 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Mjondalen 1.13 / Molde 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Mjondalen attack 0.680 / def 1.133 | Molde attack 1.085 / def 1.217 | league avg home 1.361 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: Molde (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Mjondalen xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Molde xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjondalen vs Molde kick off?
Mjondalen vs Molde kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 1 November 2020 at Consto Arena.
What was the final score in Mjondalen vs Molde?
Mjondalen 1 - 3 Molde.
Where is Mjondalen vs Molde being played?
The match is being played at Consto Arena.
What competition is Mjondalen vs Molde part of?
Mjondalen vs Molde is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Mjondalen vs Molde?
Our statistical model gives Mjondalen a 26% chance of winning, Molde a 50% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjondalen vs Molde?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Mjondalen and Molde will score (BTTS).
Will Mjondalen vs Molde have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Molde?
Record (1 meetings): Mjondalen 0W | Draws 0 | Molde 1W.
What form are Mjondalen and Molde in?
Mjondalen (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Molde (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Mjondalen's attack rating (0.68) and Molde's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Molde's attack versus Mjondalen's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
26%
3.92
25%
4.07
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Mjondalen xG
Total xG
2.80
1.67
Molde xG
3.92
26%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
19%
5.31
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
5%
20.82
16%
6.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 10.2 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.5 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjondalen vs Molde?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Mjondalen and Molde expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Mjondalen and 1.67 for Molde, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjondalen vs Molde?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 22 outings, Mjondalen have picked up 0.77 PPG on a 5W 2D 15L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Mjondalen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Molde's form line: 14W 1D 7L from 22 games, 1.95 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-W. The sample for Molde is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Molde are the form team by 1.18 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mjondalen.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Mjondalen have posted 0.90 PPG from 10 outings (3W 0D 7L).
On the road, Molde have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.95 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Molde's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Molde come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Mjondalen are averaging 0.77 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Molde are on 2.45 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Molde in 68%.
Last 22 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjondalen
Blended
Molde
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjondalen and Molde in coming into this match?
Mjondalen have gone 5W 2D 15L in their last 22 games (0.77 PPG), while Molde have gone 14W 1D 7L in their last 22 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjondalen at home or Molde away?
Molde's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjondalen at home: 0.90 PPG; Molde away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mjondalen and Molde runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Sep 2021, when Molde won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mjondalen's record when hosting Molde specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Mjondalen
1
Draws
3
Molde
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Molde?
From 4 meetings on record, Mjondalen have won 0, Molde have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mjondalen and Molde last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2021, when Molde 4-0 Mjondalen.
Who has won more matches between Mjondalen and Molde?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjondalen 30%, Molde 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 30% for Mjondalen and 100% for Molde. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 10% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mjondalen have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjondalen home games / Molde away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjondalen play Molde?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 30% of Mjondalen's games and 80% of Molde's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mjondalen vs Molde usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 30% of Mjondalen's matches and 100% of Molde's.
Do Mjondalen and Molde tend to score early?
Mjondalen have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Molde in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Molde cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Mjondalen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Molde beat Mjondalen 1-3 at Consto Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjondalen 1.13 xG and Molde 1.67 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Molde outscored their 1.67 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjondalen attack 0.68 / defence 1.13 against Molde attack 1.08 / defence 1.22, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjondalen 26% | Draw 25% | Molde 50%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjondalen 41%, Molde 86%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjondalen's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Molde's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 0.77. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Mjondalen (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Molde (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.