Bodo/Glimt 2-0 Mjondalen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 87% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bodo/Glimt vs Mjondalen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 22 as Bodo/Glimt welcome Mjondalen to Aspmyra Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 25 October 2020 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Bodo/Glimt have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.50 PPG return. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 3.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bodo/Glimt have posted 10W 0D 0L at Aspmyra Stadion — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 3.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.50 — Bodo/Glimt are significantly better at Aspmyra Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mjondalen stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Mjondalen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjondalen away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Bodo/Glimt have the edge — a 1.60 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Bodo/Glimt register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Mjondalen in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Bodo/Glimt have won 1, Mjondalen 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Jul 2020, ended 3–2 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Bodo/Glimt trading profile (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 90% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 71%.
Mjondalen trading profile (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodo/Glimt 76% versus Mjondalen 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 95% | Mjondalen 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 3.56 xG and Mjondalen 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.677 / defence 0.894 | Mjondalen attack 0.636 / defence 1.485. League average goals — home 1.428 / away 1.373. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.677 — their λ of 3.56 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Mjondalen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.485 — this is suppressing Bodo/Glimt's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Bodo/Glimt games / 21 Mjondalen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 87% | Draw 9% | Mjondalen 4%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.15 | Draw 11.11 | Mjondalen 25.00. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (87%) — a 83pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 81% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 4.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 81% — a total xG of 4.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 87% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.33 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 81% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Bodo/Glimt 70% | Mjondalen 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Mjondalen | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Oct 2020, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 87% | Draw 9% | Mjondalen 4% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 81% | BTTS 53% | xG Bodo/Glimt 3.56 / Mjondalen 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.677 / def 0.894 | Mjondalen attack 0.636 / def 1.485 | league avg home 1.428 / away 1.373 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (87%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.56
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Mjondalen xG
53%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
81%
Over 2.5
63%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Mjondalen kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Mjondalen kicked off at 19:30 on Sunday 25 October 2020 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs Mjondalen?
Bodo/Glimt 2 - 0 Mjondalen.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Mjondalen being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Mjondalen part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Mjondalen is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Mjondalen?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 87% chance of winning, Mjondalen a 4% chance, and a 9% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Mjondalen?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Mjondalen will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Mjondalen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 81%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Mjondalen?
Record (1 meetings): Bodo/Glimt 1W | Draws 0 | Mjondalen 0W.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Mjondalen in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Mjondalen (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bodo/Glimt's attack at 1.68x the league average against Mjondalen's defence at 1.49x — combine the two and it projects 3.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mjondalen's attack versus Bodo/Glimt's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 3-0 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 4-0 (8.7%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
87%
1.15
9%
11.01
4%
24.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
4 – 0
8.7%
Home win
2 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.56
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
4.33
0.78
Mjondalen xG
1.15
87%
Home win
11.01
9%
Draw
24.45
4%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
81%
Over 2.5
1.23
19%
Under 2.5
5.26
63%
Over 3.5
1.59
37%
Under 3.5
2.70
44%
Over 4.5
2.27
56%
Under 4.5
1.79
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
3%
34.99
Win to Nil
40%
2.51
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 8.3 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.8 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 8.7 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 6.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Mjondalen?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Mjondalen expected to score?
The model projects 3.56 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 0.78 for Mjondalen, a combined total of 4.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Mjondalen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 87%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bodo/Glimt's recent record stands at 18W 2D 1L from 21 games, a 2.67 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mjondalen, meanwhile, have gone 5W 2D 14L across 21 games — 0.81 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Mjondalen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bodo/Glimt by 1.86 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mjondalen heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Bodo/Glimt have managed 10W 0D 0L from 10 games — 3.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mjondalen's away record stands at 2W 1D 7L across 10 trips, a 0.70 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 3.38 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Mjondalen are on 0.81 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games.
Last 21 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Mjondalen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Mjondalen in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 18W 2D 1L in their last 21 games (2.67 PPG), while Mjondalen have gone 5W 2D 14L in their last 21 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Mjondalen away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 3.00 PPG; Mjondalen away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bodo/Glimt and Mjondalen runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 December 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Bodo/Glimt have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Dec 2021, when Bodo/Glimt won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bodo/Glimt's record when hosting Mjondalen specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Bodo/Glimt
0
Draws
0
Mjondalen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Mjondalen?
From 4 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 4, Mjondalen have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Mjondalen last play each other?
They last met on 12 December 2021, when Mjondalen 0-3 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Mjondalen?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time.
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Bodo/Glimt at 70%, Mjondalen at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 90% for Bodo/Glimt and 60% for Mjondalen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mjondalen in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Mjondalen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play Mjondalen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Bodo/Glimt's games and 60% of Mjondalen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs Mjondalen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 90% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 60% of Mjondalen's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Mjondalen tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Mjondalen in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bodo/Glimt cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Mjondalen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Mjondalen 2-0 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 3.56 xG and Mjondalen 0.78 xG, a combined 4.33. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Bodo/Glimt fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.68 / defence 0.89 against Mjondalen attack 0.64 / defence 1.49, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 87% | Draw 9% | Mjondalen 4%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 87%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 81%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 63% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 95%, Mjondalen 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did not.
Mjondalen's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.67 PPG against 0.81. That form edge translated into the three points. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.70 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Mjondalen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.