Sandefjord 3-3 Brann – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brann at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandefjord vs Brann fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sandefjord host Brann at Sandefjord Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 November 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sandefjord have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandefjord at Sandefjord Arena this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Brann — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brann away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Sandefjord) versus 0.90 (Brann). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Sandefjord in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Brann in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandefjord 46% versus Brann 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandefjord 54% | Brann 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 0.98 xG and Brann 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 0.553 / defence 1.207 | Brann attack 0.719 / defence 1.307. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.373. Sandefjord's attack strength of 0.553 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Brann bring a strong defensive rating of 1.307 — this is suppressing Sandefjord's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Sandefjord games / 22 Brann games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 30% | Draw 29% | Brann 41%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | Brann 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Brann as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brann offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sandefjord 30% | Brann 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Sandefjord Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 30% | Draw 29% | Brann 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Sandefjord 0.98 / Brann 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 0.553 / def 1.207 | Brann attack 0.719 / def 1.307 | league avg home 1.360 / away 1.373 • Poisson stance: Brann (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Brann xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Brann kick off?
Sandefjord vs Brann kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 1 November 2020 at Sandefjord Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Brann?
Sandefjord 3 - 3 Brann.
Where is Sandefjord vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Sandefjord Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Brann part of?
Sandefjord vs Brann is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 30% chance of winning, Brann a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Sandefjord and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Brann?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sandefjord and Brann in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Brann (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sandefjord's attack at 0.55x the league average against Brann's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Brann's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 0-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
30%
3.33
29%
3.40
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
2.17
1.19
Brann xG
3.33
30%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
9%
10.98
15%
6.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 13.6 | 8.1 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.19 for Brann, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Brann?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sandefjord come into this having played 22 games, going 8W 2D 12L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-W. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Brann sit at 1.09 PPG from 22 outings (6W 6D 10L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sandefjord on 1.18 PPG, Brann on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Sandefjord's home form reads 3W 2D 5L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Brann have taken 1.10 points per game from 10 outings (3W 2D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Sandefjord are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.18 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann in 68%.
Last 22 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Blended
Brann
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Brann in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 8W 2D 12L in their last 22 games (1.18 PPG), while Brann have gone 6W 6D 10L in their last 22 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Brann away?
Sandefjord's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.10 PPG; Brann away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Sep 2025, when Brann won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sandefjord's record when hosting Brann specifically: 0W 4D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Sandefjord
5
Draws
4
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Brann?
From 10 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 1, Brann have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Brann 0-1 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Brann?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandefjord 30%, Brann 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sandefjord) and 50% (Brann).
On the defensive side: Sandefjord have failed to score in 50% of games; Brann in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Brann?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Sandefjord's recent matches and 50% of Brann's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sandefjord vs Brann usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sandefjord's recent games and 50% of Brann's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sandefjord and Brann tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Brann in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sandefjord and Brann share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sandefjord Arena, Regular Season - 23, as Sandefjord and Brann drew 3-3 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 0.98 xG and Brann 1.19 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Sandefjord beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Brann outscored their 1.19 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 0.55 / defence 1.21 against Brann attack 0.72 / defence 1.31, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 30% | Draw 29% | Brann 41%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 54%, Brann 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Brann's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sandefjord 1.18 PPG, Brann 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sandefjord (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.70 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Brann (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.