Rosenborg 3-1 Mjondalen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Rosenborg (62%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Rosenborg face Mjondalen.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rosenborg host Mjondalen at Lerkendal Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 26 September 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rosenborg stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rosenborg's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Lerkendal Stadion this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Mjondalen — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Mjondalen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Mjondalen have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Rosenborg have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
Rosenborg hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 3 previous encounters compared to 0 for Mjondalen, with 0 draws in between.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2021, ended 2–1 with Rosenborg winning.
The historical record gives Rosenborg a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Rosenborg in-play tendencies (49 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Mjondalen in-play tendencies (49 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rosenborg 59% versus Mjondalen 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 67% | Mjondalen 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 2.13 xG and Mjondalen 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.209 / defence 0.917 | Mjondalen attack 0.787 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.855 / away 1.311. Data: 49 Rosenborg games / 49 Mjondalen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 62% | Draw 24% | Mjondalen 14%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.61 | Draw 4.17 | Mjondalen 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Rosenborg (62%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Rosenborg as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 50% | Mjondalen 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Mjondalen | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 62% | Draw 24% | Mjondalen 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 56% | xG Rosenborg 2.13 / Mjondalen 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.209 / def 0.917 | Mjondalen attack 0.787 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.855 / away 1.311 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Mjondalen xG
56%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Mjondalen kick off?
Rosenborg vs Mjondalen kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Mjondalen?
Rosenborg 3 - 1 Mjondalen.
Where is Rosenborg vs Mjondalen being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Mjondalen part of?
Rosenborg vs Mjondalen is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Mjondalen?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 62% chance of winning, Mjondalen a 14% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Mjondalen?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Rosenborg and Mjondalen will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Mjondalen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Mjondalen?
Record (3 meetings): Rosenborg 3W | Draws 0 | Mjondalen 0W.
What form are Rosenborg and Mjondalen in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Mjondalen (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Rosenborg's attack rating (1.21) and Mjondalen's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 2.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mjondalen's attack versus Rosenborg's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
62%
1.60
24%
4.19
14%
7.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
3.08
0.95
Mjondalen xG
1.60
62%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
7.32
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
12%
8.41
Win to Nil
24%
4.13
2%
61.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.8 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Mjondalen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Mjondalen expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for Rosenborg and 0.95 for Mjondalen, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Mjondalen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rosenborg's recent record stands at 25W 11D 13L from 49 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mjondalen, meanwhile, have gone 11W 10D 28L across 49 games — 0.88 PPG, with L-D-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Mjondalen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rosenborg by 0.88 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mjondalen heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Rosenborg have managed 16W 3D 4L from 23 games — 2.22 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.76 PPG overall — Rosenborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Mjondalen's away record stands at 3W 6D 14L across 23 trips, a 0.65 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rosenborg are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Mjondalen are on 1.02 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Blended
Mjondalen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Mjondalen in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 25W 11D 13L in their last 49 games (1.76 PPG), while Mjondalen have gone 11W 10D 28L in their last 49 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Mjondalen away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.22 PPG; Mjondalen away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rosenborg and Mjondalen runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Rosenborg go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Rosenborg's record when hosting Mjondalen specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Rosenborg
0
Draws
0
Mjondalen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Mjondalen?
From 4 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 4, Mjondalen have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Mjondalen last play each other?
They last met on 26 September 2021, when Rosenborg 3-1 Mjondalen.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Mjondalen?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 61%, Mjondalen 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 74% (Rosenborg) and 44% (Mjondalen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Mjondalen in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Mjondalen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Mjondalen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Rosenborg's games and 56% of Mjondalen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Mjondalen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Rosenborg's matches and 44% of Mjondalen's.
Do Rosenborg and Mjondalen tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Mjondalen in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rosenborg cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Mjondalen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Mjondalen 3-1 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 2.13 xG and Mjondalen 0.95 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Rosenborg beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.21 / defence 0.92 against Mjondalen attack 0.79 / defence 0.95, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 62% | Draw 24% | Mjondalen 14%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 67%, Mjondalen 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Mjondalen's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Mjondalen (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.