Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sandefjord at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 4 as Sandefjord welcome Sarpsborg 08 FF to Sandefjord Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 April 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sandefjord have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W D D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Sandefjord's home record at Sandefjord Arena: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF stand at 0W 5D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Sandefjord carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.20 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Sandefjord trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Sarpsborg 08 FF trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandefjord 47% versus Sarpsborg 08 FF 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandefjord 50% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.59 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 0.850 / defence 0.984 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.904 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.796 / away 1.349. Data: 30 Sandefjord games / 30 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 45% | Draw 27% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 27%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 3.70. Sandefjord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sandefjord at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sandefjord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sandefjord 50% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Sandefjord Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Apr 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 45% | Draw 27% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Sandefjord 1.59 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 0.850 / def 0.984 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.904 / def 1.045 | league avg home 1.796 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 18 April 2021 at Sandefjord Arena.
Where is Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Sandefjord Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 45% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-D-D. Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sandefjord's attack at 0.85x the league average against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
45%
2.21
27%
3.66
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
2.79
1.20
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
20%
4.93
Win to Nil
14%
7.34
6%
17.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.7 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.20 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sandefjord come into this having played 30 games, going 9W 8D 13L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-D.
On the other side, Sarpsborg 08 FF sit at 1.07 PPG from 30 outings (8W 8D 14L), a run that reads D-D-D-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sandefjord on 1.17 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sandefjord's home form reads 3W 7D 5L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Sarpsborg 08 FF have taken 0.73 points per game from 15 outings (2W 5D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Sandefjord are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.10 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Current Season
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 9W 8D 13L in their last 30 games (1.17 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 8W 8D 14L in their last 30 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Sandefjord's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.07 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Sandefjord or Sarpsborg 08 FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sandefjord have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Sarpsborg 08 FF have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Aug 2021, when Sarpsborg 08 FF won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sandefjord's record when hosting Sarpsborg 08 FF specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sandefjord
1
Draws
6
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 3, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Sandefjord 0-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandefjord 40%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Sandefjord) and 47% (Sarpsborg 08 FF).
On the defensive side: Sandefjord keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sandefjord have failed to score in 47% of games; Sarpsborg 08 FF in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Sandefjord's recent matches and 53% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sandefjord vs Sarpsborg 08 FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Sandefjord's recent games and 47% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sandefjord's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sandefjord Arena, Regular Season - 4, as Sandefjord and Sarpsborg 08 FF drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.59 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.20 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sandefjord fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Sarpsborg 08 FF landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 0.85 / defence 0.98 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.90 / defence 1.04, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 45% | Draw 27% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 27%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 50%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sandefjord 1.17 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sandefjord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.