ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates ODD Ballklubb at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Skagerak Arena plays host to ODD Ballklubb versus Kristiansund BK in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Sunday 18 April 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
ODD Ballklubb's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, ODD Ballklubb have posted 6W 1D 3L at Skagerak Arena — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — ODD Ballklubb are significantly better at Skagerak Arena than their overall form suggests.
Kristiansund BK (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Kristiansund BK's away record: 4W 5D 1L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Kristiansund BK arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — ODD Ballklubb register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Kristiansund BK in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: ODD Ballklubb 1W, Kristiansund BK 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Dec 2020, ended 3–4 with Kristiansund BK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
ODD Ballklubb goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Kristiansund BK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 87% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — ODD Ballklubb 57% and Kristiansund BK 83% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (ODD Ballklubb 63% | Kristiansund BK 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 1.65 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.984 / defence 1.074 | Kristiansund BK attack 1.041 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.796 / away 1.349. Data: 30 ODD Ballklubb games / 30 Kristiansund BK games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 40% | Draw 26% | Kristiansund BK 34%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Kristiansund BK 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates ODD Ballklubb as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Kristiansund BK (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on ODD Ballklubb if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.16 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: ODD Ballklubb 80% | Kristiansund BK 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Apr 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 40% | Draw 26% | Kristiansund BK 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 64% | xG ODD Ballklubb 1.65 / Kristiansund BK 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.984 / def 1.074 | Kristiansund BK attack 1.041 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.796 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: ODD Ballklubb (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Kristiansund BK xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 18 April 2021 at Skagerak Arena.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 40% chance of winning, Kristiansund BK a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making ODD Ballklubb the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Kristiansund BK will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Kristiansund BK?
Record (2 meetings): ODD Ballklubb 1W | Draws 0 | Kristiansund BK 1W.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Kristiansund BK in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Kristiansund BK (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
ODD Ballklubb's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Kristiansund BK's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. Flip it around — Kristiansund BK's attack (1.04x) against ODD Ballklubb's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ODD Ballklubb Win
40%
2.49
26%
3.87
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
3.16
1.51
Kristiansund BK xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
22%
4.52
19%
5.22
Win to Nil
9%
11.25
7%
15.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.6 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Kristiansund BK expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 1.51 for Kristiansund BK, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
ODD Ballklubb come into this having played 30 games, going 13W 4D 13L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, Kristiansund BK sit at 1.60 PPG from 30 outings (12W 12D 6L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for ODD Ballklubb against 1.60 for Kristiansund BK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
ODD Ballklubb's home form reads 8W 2D 5L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.73 PPG return.
Away from home, Kristiansund BK have taken 1.53 points per game from 15 outings (5W 8D 2L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Kristiansund BK are on 1.90 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kristiansund BK in 83%.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Current Season
Kristiansund BK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Kristiansund BK in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 13W 4D 13L in their last 30 games (1.43 PPG), while Kristiansund BK have gone 12W 12D 6L in their last 30 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Kristiansund BK away?
ODD Ballklubb's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.73 PPG; Kristiansund BK away: 1.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 September 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, ODD Ballklubb have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Kristiansund BK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
ODD Ballklubb
4
Draws
3
Kristiansund BK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Kristiansund BK?
From 8 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 1, Kristiansund BK have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Kristiansund BK last play each other?
They last met on 22 September 2024, when Kristiansund BK 0-0 ODD Ballklubb.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Kristiansund BK?
Kristiansund BK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for ODD Ballklubb, 87% for Kristiansund BK — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for ODD Ballklubb and 67% for Kristiansund BK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Kristiansund BK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Kristiansund BK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of ODD Ballklubb's games and 87% of Kristiansund BK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Kristiansund BK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of ODD Ballklubb's matches and 67% of Kristiansund BK's.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Kristiansund BK tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Kristiansund BK in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at ODD Ballklubb's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 4, as ODD Ballklubb and Kristiansund BK drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 1.65 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.51 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. ODD Ballklubb fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Kristiansund BK landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 0.98 / defence 1.07 against Kristiansund BK attack 1.04 / defence 0.93, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 40% | Draw 26% | Kristiansund BK 34%, with ODD Ballklubb to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 63%, Kristiansund BK 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — ODD Ballklubb 1.43 PPG, Kristiansund BK 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.