Haugesund 2-1 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haugesund at 40%, yet in-form Rosenborg provide a compelling counter-argument — this Haugesund vs Rosenborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Rosenborg travel to Haugesund Sparebank Arena to take on Haugesund. The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 September 2022, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Haugesund stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund's home record at Haugesund Sparebank Arena: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Rosenborg have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Rosenborg have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Rosenborg's 2.30 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Haugesund's 1.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Haugesund, 0 for Rosenborg and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2022, ended 3–3 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Haugesund in-play tendencies (51 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Rosenborg in-play tendencies (51 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 29% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Haugesund 59% and Rosenborg 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Haugesund 63% | Rosenborg 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.87 xG and Rosenborg 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.989 / defence 1.007 | Rosenborg attack 1.321 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.754 / away 1.386. Rosenborg have an above-average attack strength of 1.321 — the away xG of 1.84 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 51 Haugesund games / 51 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 40% | Draw 22% | Rosenborg 39%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 2.50 | Draw 4.55 | Rosenborg 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.72. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.72 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.87 / 1.84) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Haugesund are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Rosenborg (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Haugesund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 39% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.72 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 71% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Haugesund 70% | Rosenborg 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 39% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Haugesund Sparebank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Sep 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 40% | Draw 22% | Rosenborg 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 71% | xG Haugesund 1.87 / Rosenborg 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.989 / def 1.007 | Rosenborg attack 1.321 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.754 / away 1.386 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.84
Rosenborg xG
71%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Rosenborg kick off?
Haugesund vs Rosenborg kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 11 September 2022 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Rosenborg?
Haugesund 2 - 1 Rosenborg.
Where is Haugesund vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What competition is Haugesund vs Rosenborg part of?
Haugesund vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 40% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 39% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Haugesund and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Rosenborg?
Record (3 meetings): Haugesund 0W | Draws 3 | Rosenborg 0W.
What form are Haugesund and Rosenborg in?
Haugesund (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Rosenborg (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Haugesund's attack at 0.99x the league average against Rosenborg's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.87 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rosenborg's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 1.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (7.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
40%
2.51
22%
4.64
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Haugesund xG
Total xG
3.72
1.84
Rosenborg xG
2.51
40%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.40
29%
BTTS No
3.48
Clean Sheet
16%
6.32
15%
6.51
Win to Nil
6%
15.88
6%
16.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 8.4 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.9 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.84 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 3.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 51 outings, Haugesund have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 16W 12D 23L record — W-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rosenborg's form line: 24W 16D 11L from 51 games, 1.73 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Rosenborg are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Haugesund.
Venue Form
On home soil, Haugesund have posted 1.69 PPG from 26 outings (13W 5D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 1.18 PPG overall — Haugesund are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Rosenborg have gone 8W 10D 8L from 26 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.73 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rosenborg's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Haugesund are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 2.02 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg in 69%.
Last 51 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Blended
Rosenborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 16W 12D 23L in their last 51 games (1.18 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 24W 16D 11L in their last 51 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Rosenborg away?
Haugesund's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.69 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 14 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Rosenborg have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Sep 2024, when Rosenborg won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haugesund's record when hosting Rosenborg specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Haugesund
3
Draws
6
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Rosenborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 1, Rosenborg have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2025, when Haugesund 0-3 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Rosenborg?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Haugesund at 62%, Rosenborg at 77%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Haugesund and 69% for Rosenborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Rosenborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Haugesund's games and 77% of Rosenborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haugesund vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Haugesund's matches and 69% of Rosenborg's.
Do Haugesund and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Haugesund edge out Rosenborg 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haugesund beat Rosenborg 2-1 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.87 xG and Rosenborg 1.84 xG, a combined 3.72. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Rosenborg landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.99 / defence 1.01 against Rosenborg attack 1.32 / defence 1.08, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 40% | Draw 22% | Rosenborg 39%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 63%, Rosenborg 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Rosenborg's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with Haugesund winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.