Aalesund 1-3 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Aalesund at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Aalesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF meet at Color Line Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 11 September 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Aalesund's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Aalesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aalesund at Color Line Stadion this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all games): 2W 0D 8L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Aalesund have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Aalesund, 2 for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 May 2022, ended 2–1 with Aalesund winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Aalesund — key trading statistics (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Sarpsborg 08 FF — key trading statistics (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Aalesund 57% and Sarpsborg 08 FF 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aalesund 57% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aalesund 1.52 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aalesund attack 0.697 / defence 1.014 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.043 / defence 1.263. League average goals — home 1.724 / away 1.345. Aalesund's attack strength of 0.697 is below the league average — the 1.52 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sarpsborg 08 FF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.263 — this is suppressing Aalesund's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Aalesund games / 51 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aalesund 40% | Draw 25% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 36%. Fair-value odds: Aalesund 2.50 | Draw 4.00 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Aalesund are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Aalesund if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Aalesund 60% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Color Line Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Sep 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aalesund 40% | Draw 25% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Aalesund 1.52 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Aalesund attack 0.697 / def 1.014 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.043 / def 1.263 | league avg home 1.724 / away 1.345 • Poisson stance: Aalesund (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Aalesund xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 11 September 2022 at Color Line Stadion.
What was the final score in Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Aalesund 1 - 3 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Where is Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Color Line Stadion.
What competition is Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Aalesund a 40% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Aalesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Aalesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Record (3 meetings): Aalesund 1W | Draws 0 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 2W.
What form are Aalesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
Aalesund (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Aalesund's attack at 0.70x the league average against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack (1.04x) against Aalesund's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 21/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Aalesund Win
40%
2.51
25%
4.07
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Aalesund xG
Total xG
2.94
1.42
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
2.51
40%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
22%
4.56
Win to Nil
10%
10.40
8%
12.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.5 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.4 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.7 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Aalesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Aalesund and 1.42 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 21 outings, Aalesund have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 6W 7D 8L record — L-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Aalesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's form line: 7W 1D 13L from 21 games, 1.05 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Aalesund against 1.05 for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Aalesund have posted 1.30 PPG from 10 outings (3W 4D 3L).
On the road, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aalesund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Aalesund are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.67 scored and 1.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF in 67%.
Last 21 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aalesund
Blended
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aalesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
Aalesund have gone 6W 7D 8L in their last 21 games (1.19 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 7W 1D 13L in their last 21 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aalesund at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Aalesund's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aalesund at home: 1.30 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 October 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sarpsborg 08 FF won 4-0 on 2 Aug 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aalesund have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sarpsborg 08 FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Aalesund
0
Draws
4
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 6 meetings on record, Aalesund have won 2, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Aalesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 22 October 2023, when Aalesund 3-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Aalesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Aalesund see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for Aalesund, 70% for Sarpsborg 08 FF — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Aalesund and 80% for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 80% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aalesund home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aalesund play Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Aalesund's games and 70% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Aalesund's matches and 80% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's.
Do Aalesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to score early?
Aalesund have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sarpsborg 08 FF cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Aalesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sarpsborg 08 FF beat Aalesund 1-3 at Color Line Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aalesund 1.52 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.42 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF outscored their 1.42 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aalesund attack 0.70 / defence 1.01 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.04 / defence 1.26, drawn from 21/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aalesund 40% | Draw 25% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 36%, with Aalesund to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Sarpsborg 08 FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aalesund 57%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aalesund's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Aalesund 1.19 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sarpsborg 08 FF win broke the near-deadlock. Aalesund (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.