Haugesund 2-1 Tromso – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haugesund at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Haugesund vs Tromso fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 21 as Haugesund welcome Tromso to Haugesund Sparebank Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 4 September 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Haugesund — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Haugesund have posted 4W 2D 4L at Haugesund Sparebank Arena — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Tromso have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Tromso, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tromso's away record: 0W 6D 4L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Haugesund) versus 1.50 (Tromso). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Haugesund, 1 for Tromso and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Jun 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Haugesund in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Tromso in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 58% versus Tromso 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 62% | Tromso 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.75 xG and Tromso 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.996 / defence 1.046 | Tromso attack 0.765 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.696 / away 1.334. Data: 50 Haugesund games / 50 Tromso games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 53% | Draw 24% | Tromso 23%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Tromso 4.35. Haugesund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Haugesund are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Haugesund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Haugesund 70% | Tromso 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Tromso | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Haugesund Sparebank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Sep 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 53% | Draw 24% | Tromso 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG Haugesund 1.75 / Tromso 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.996 / def 1.046 | Tromso attack 0.765 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.696 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Tromso xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Tromso kick off?
Haugesund vs Tromso kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 4 September 2022 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Tromso?
Haugesund 2 - 1 Tromso.
Where is Haugesund vs Tromso being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What competition is Haugesund vs Tromso part of?
Haugesund vs Tromso is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Tromso?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 53% chance of winning, Tromso a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Tromso?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Haugesund and Tromso will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Tromso have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Tromso?
Record (3 meetings): Haugesund 1W | Draws 1 | Tromso 1W.
What form are Haugesund and Tromso in?
Haugesund (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Tromso (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Haugesund's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Tromso's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. The same calculation in reverse, Tromso's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
53%
1.88
24%
4.23
23%
4.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Haugesund xG
Total xG
2.81
1.07
Tromso xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
4.32
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
17%
5.73
Win to Nil
18%
5.46
4%
24.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.2 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Tromso?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Tromso expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.07 for Tromso, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Tromso?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Haugesund's recent record stands at 15W 12D 23L from 50 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tromso, meanwhile, have gone 14W 20D 16L across 50 games — 1.24 PPG, with D-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Tromso is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Haugesund on 1.14 PPG, Tromso on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Haugesund have managed 12W 5D 8L from 25 games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.14 PPG overall — Haugesund are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Tromso's away record stands at 5W 11D 9L across 25 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Haugesund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Haugesund are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Tromso are on 1.22 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tromso in 60%.
Last 50 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Blended
Tromso
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Tromso in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 15W 12D 23L in their last 50 games (1.14 PPG), while Tromso have gone 14W 20D 16L in their last 50 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Tromso away?
Haugesund's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.64 PPG; Tromso away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Haugesund and Tromso runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 26 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Tromso have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Jul 2021, when Haugesund won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haugesund's record when hosting Tromso specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Haugesund
1
Draws
5
Tromso
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Tromso?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 4, Tromso have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Tromso last play each other?
They last met on 26 October 2025, when Haugesund 2-3 Tromso.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Tromso?
Tromso have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 60%, Tromso 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Haugesund and 48% for Tromso. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Tromso in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Tromso away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Tromso?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Haugesund's games and 60% of Tromso's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haugesund vs Tromso usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Haugesund's matches and 48% of Tromso's.
Do Haugesund and Tromso tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Tromso in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Haugesund edge out Tromso 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haugesund beat Tromso 2-1 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.75 xG and Tromso 1.07 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 1.00 / defence 1.05 against Tromso attack 0.77 / defence 1.03, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 53% | Draw 24% | Tromso 23%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 62%, Tromso 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Tromso's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haugesund 1.14 PPG, Tromso 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Haugesund win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.