Rosenborg 3-1 Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rosenborg vs Lillestrom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rosenborg and Lillestrom meet at Lerkendal Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 18 September 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Rosenborg (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rosenborg's home record at Lerkendal Stadion: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Lillestrom's overall Eliteserien record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lillestrom's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Rosenborg. A 0.50 PPG lead over Lillestrom (2.20 vs 1.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Lillestrom in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Across the last 3 meetings, Lillestrom have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Rosenborg's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Jun 2022, ended 1–3 with Lillestrom winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Lillestrom have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Rosenborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 29% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Lillestrom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rosenborg 69% and Lillestrom 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Rosenborg 73% | Lillestrom 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 2.02 xG and Lillestrom 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.258 / defence 0.898 | Lillestrom attack 1.026 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.760 / away 1.367. Rosenborg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.258 — their λ of 2.02 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 52 Rosenborg games / 52 Lillestrom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 55% | Draw 21% | Lillestrom 24%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.82 | Draw 4.76 | Lillestrom 4.17. The model has a clear lean to Rosenborg (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.02 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Lillestrom lead the H2H ledger, but Rosenborg carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Rosenborg as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.28 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 60% | Lillestrom 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Sep 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 55% | Draw 21% | Lillestrom 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 62% | xG Rosenborg 2.02 / Lillestrom 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.258 / def 0.898 | Lillestrom attack 1.026 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.760 / away 1.367 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Lillestrom xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Lillestrom kick off?
Rosenborg vs Lillestrom kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 18 September 2022 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Lillestrom?
Rosenborg 3 - 1 Lillestrom.
Where is Rosenborg vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Lillestrom part of?
Rosenborg vs Lillestrom is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 55% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 24% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Rosenborg and Lillestrom will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Lillestrom?
Record (3 meetings): Rosenborg 0W | Draws 0 | Lillestrom 3W.
What form are Rosenborg and Lillestrom in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Lillestrom (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Rosenborg's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Lillestrom's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.02. Flip it around — Lillestrom's attack (1.03x) against Rosenborg's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
55%
1.82
21%
4.66
24%
4.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
2 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
3.28
1.26
Lillestrom xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
4.25
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
13%
7.53
Win to Nil
16%
6.41
3%
31.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.26 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Lillestrom?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 52 outings, Rosenborg have picked up 1.69 PPG on a 24W 16D 12L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lillestrom's form line: 27W 12D 13L from 52 games, 1.79 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-W. The sample for Lillestrom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.69 PPG for Rosenborg against 1.79 for Lillestrom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Rosenborg have posted 2.16 PPG from 25 outings (16W 6D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.69 PPG overall — Rosenborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Lillestrom have gone 11W 7D 7L from 25 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rosenborg are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Lillestrom are on 1.69 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Blended
Lillestrom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Lillestrom in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 24W 16D 12L in their last 52 games (1.69 PPG), while Lillestrom have gone 27W 12D 13L in their last 52 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Lillestrom away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.16 PPG; Lillestrom away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rosenborg won 4-0 on 21 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rosenborg have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lillestrom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Rosenborg
1
Draws
5
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Lillestrom?
From 9 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 3, Lillestrom have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Lillestrom last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Rosenborg 2-0 Lillestrom.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Lillestrom?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for Rosenborg, 76% for Lillestrom — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Rosenborg and 72% for Lillestrom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Lillestrom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Rosenborg's games and 76% of Lillestrom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Lillestrom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Rosenborg's matches and 72% of Lillestrom's.
Do Rosenborg and Lillestrom tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Lillestrom in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rosenborg cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Lillestrom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Lillestrom 3-1 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 2.02 xG and Lillestrom 1.26 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Rosenborg beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.26 / defence 0.90 against Lillestrom attack 1.03 / defence 0.91, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 55% | Draw 21% | Lillestrom 24%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 73%, Lillestrom 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Lillestrom's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rosenborg 1.69 PPG, Lillestrom 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rosenborg win broke the near-deadlock. Lillestrom (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.