Rosenborg vs Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rosenborg at 71% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rosenborg vs Sandefjord encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rosenborg host Sandefjord at Lerkendal Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 October 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Rosenborg — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rosenborg at Lerkendal Stadion this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sandefjord have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sandefjord have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Rosenborg have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Rosenborg register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sandefjord in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Rosenborg have won 1, Sandefjord 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2021, ended 4–1 with Rosenborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Rosenborg in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Sandefjord in-play tendencies (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rosenborg 59% versus Sandefjord 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 67% | Sandefjord 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 2.89 xG and Sandefjord 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.281 / defence 1.028 | Sandefjord attack 0.934 / defence 1.247. League average goals — home 1.807 / away 1.219. Rosenborg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.281 — their λ of 2.89 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Sandefjord bring a strong defensive rating of 1.247 — this is suppressing Rosenborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Rosenborg games / 54 Sandefjord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 71% | Draw 17% | Sandefjord 11%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.41 | Draw 5.88 | Sandefjord 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Rosenborg (71%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 4.06. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.06 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.89 / 1.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rosenborg are the pick at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 77% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 60% | Sandefjord 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 71% | Draw 17% | Sandefjord 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 66% | xG Rosenborg 2.89 / Sandefjord 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.281 / def 1.028 | Sandefjord attack 0.934 / def 1.247 | league avg home 1.807 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.89
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Sandefjord xG
66%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Sandefjord kick off?
Rosenborg vs Sandefjord kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at Lerkendal Stadion.
Where is Rosenborg vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Sandefjord part of?
Rosenborg vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 71% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 11% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Rosenborg and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Sandefjord?
Record (1 meetings): Rosenborg 1W | Draws 0 | Sandefjord 0W.
What form are Rosenborg and Sandefjord in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Sandefjord (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Rosenborg's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against Sandefjord's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.89. The same calculation in reverse, Sandefjord's attack versus Rosenborg's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.4%. Close behind: 3-1 (8.1%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
71%
1.40
17%
5.75
11%
8.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.1%
Home win
2 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.89
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
4.06
1.17
Sandefjord xG
1.40
71%
Home win
5.75
17%
Draw
8.86
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.98
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
6%
17.96
Win to Nil
22%
4.52
1%
159.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 5.0 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 8.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.0 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.4%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 2.89 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.17 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 4.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Sandefjord?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rosenborg's recent record stands at 27W 13D 14L from 54 games, a 1.74 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sandefjord, meanwhile, have gone 17W 13D 24L across 54 games — 1.19 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rosenborg by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sandefjord heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Rosenborg have managed 18W 4D 4L from 26 games — 2.23 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.74 PPG overall — Rosenborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sandefjord's away record stands at 9W 2D 15L across 26 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rosenborg are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.13 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Blended
Sandefjord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 27W 13D 14L in their last 54 games (1.74 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 17W 13D 24L in their last 54 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Sandefjord away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.23 PPG; Sandefjord away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Rosenborg or Sandefjord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Sandefjord in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rosenborg and Sandefjord runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Oct 2021, when Rosenborg won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rosenborg's record when hosting Sandefjord specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Rosenborg
3
Draws
2
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Sandefjord?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 5, Sandefjord have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Sandefjord 0-0 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Sandefjord?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 65%, Sandefjord 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Rosenborg and 62% for Sandefjord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Sandefjord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Rosenborg's games and 58% of Sandefjord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Sandefjord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Rosenborg's matches and 62% of Sandefjord's.
Do Rosenborg and Sandefjord tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Sandefjord in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Rosenborg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 27, as Rosenborg and Sandefjord drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 2.89 xG and Sandefjord 1.17 xG, a combined 4.06. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Rosenborg fell 2.9 short of their projected output. Sandefjord landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.28 / defence 1.03 against Sandefjord attack 0.93 / defence 1.25, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 71% | Draw 17% | Sandefjord 11%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 71%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 93% and missed. Over 3.5 was 58% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 67%, Sandefjord 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Sandefjord's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.54 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Sandefjord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.