Stabaek 2-1 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haugesund at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Stabaek face Haugesund.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Stabaek welcome Haugesund to Nadderud Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 25). Kick-off is Sunday 31 October 2021 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Stabaek — last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Stabaek at home: 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Haugesund have recorded 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Haugesund away from home: 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Stabaek at 0.60 PPG versus Haugesund's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Stabaek, 1 for Haugesund and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 May 2021, ended Stabaek 0–0 Haugesund — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Stabaek in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Haugesund in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stabaek 54% versus Haugesund 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stabaek 61% | Haugesund 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 1.31 xG and Haugesund 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.620 / defence 1.348 | Haugesund attack 1.038 / defence 1.181. League average goals — home 1.785 / away 1.233. Stabaek's attack rating of 0.620 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.31. Stabaek's defence rating of 1.348 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Haugesund's projected output up. Data: built from Stabaek's last 54 games and Haugesund's last 54.
Result probabilities: Stabaek 27% | Draw 29% | Haugesund 45%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 3.76 | Draw 3.48 | Haugesund 2.24. Haugesund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.31 / 1.72) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Haugesund are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Haugesund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Stabaek's last 10 home games and Haugesund's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Stabaek 40% (last 10 home games) | Haugesund 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stabaek vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 25 | Venue: Nadderud Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 31 October 2021 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stabaek 27% | Draw 29% | Haugesund 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Stabaek 1.31 / Haugesund 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Stabaek attack 0.620 / def 1.348 | Haugesund attack 1.038 / def 1.181 | league avg home 1.785 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Stabaek xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Haugesund xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stabaek vs Haugesund FAQs
What time does Stabaek vs Haugesund kick off?
Stabaek vs Haugesund kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Nadderud Stadion.
What was the final score in Stabaek vs Haugesund?
Stabaek 2 - 1 Haugesund.
Where is Stabaek vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Nadderud Stadion.
What competition is Stabaek vs Haugesund part of?
Stabaek vs Haugesund is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 25) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stabaek vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Stabaek a 27% chance of winning, Haugesund a 45% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stabaek vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Stabaek and Haugesund will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Stabaek vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Stabaek's attacking strength (0.62x league average) is weighed against Haugesund's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Stabaek's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Stabaek's last 54 games and Haugesund's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
27%
3.76
29%
3.48
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Stabaek xG
Total xG
3.03
1.72
Haugesund xG
3.76
27%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
18%
5.61
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
5%
21.08
12%
8.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.9 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.1 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stabaek vs Haugesund Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stabaek vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Stabaek and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Stabaek and 1.72 for Haugesund, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Stabaek vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 54 outings, Stabaek have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 13W 18D 23L record — D-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Haugesund's form line: 20W 11D 23L from 54 games, 1.31 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stabaek on 1.06 PPG, Haugesund on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Stabaek have posted 1.11 PPG from their last 27 home games (7W 9D 11L).
On the road, Haugesund have gone 6W 6D 15L from their last 27 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Haugesund's recent record.
The Goals Picture
Stabaek are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.46 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stabaek
Blended
Haugesund
Blended
Stabaek (Home) vs Haugesund (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stabaek
Blended
Haugesund
Blended
❓ Stabaek vs Haugesund Form FAQs
What form are Stabaek and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Stabaek have gone 13W 18D 23L in their last 54 games (1.06 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 20W 11D 23L in their last 54 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stabaek at home or Haugesund away?
Stabaek's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stabaek at home: 1.11 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2020. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent in our data was on 3 December 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 23 Apr 2023, when Stabaek won Stabaek 3-0 Haugesund.
Stabaek's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Stabaek
1
Draws
2
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Stabaek vs Haugesund H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Haugesund?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Stabaek have won 3, Haugesund have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Stabaek and Haugesund last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 December 2023: Haugesund 3-0 Stabaek.
Who has won more matches between Stabaek and Haugesund?
Stabaek have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stabaek 41%, Haugesund 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Stabaek) and 59% (Haugesund).
On the defensive side: Stabaek have failed to score in 41% of games; Haugesund in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stabaek home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stabaek vs Haugesund Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stabaek and Haugesund matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Stabaek's recent matches and 59% of Haugesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Stabaek and Haugesund matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Stabaek's recent games and 59% of Haugesund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stabaek and Haugesund matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Stabaek's recent matches and 78% of Haugesund's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Stabaek defy the odds to beat Haugesund 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stabaek beat Haugesund 2-1 at Nadderud Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stabaek 1.31 xG and Haugesund 1.72 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stabaek attack 0.62 / defence 1.35 against Haugesund attack 1.04 / defence 1.18, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stabaek 27% | Draw 29% | Haugesund 45%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Stabaek win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stabaek 61%, Haugesund 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stabaek's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Haugesund's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stabaek 1.06 PPG, Haugesund 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stabaek win broke the near-deadlock. Stabaek (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.