Stabaek 2-1 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haugesund at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stabaek vs Haugesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 25 as Stabaek welcome Haugesund to Nadderud Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 31 October 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Stabaek — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Stabaek, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stabaek at Nadderud Stadion this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Haugesund have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Stabaek at 0.60 PPG versus Haugesund's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Stabaek have won 1, Haugesund 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Stabaek in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Haugesund in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stabaek 54% versus Haugesund 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stabaek 61% | Haugesund 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 1.31 xG and Haugesund 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.620 / defence 1.348 | Haugesund attack 1.038 / defence 1.181. League average goals — home 1.785 / away 1.233. Stabaek's attack strength of 0.620 is below the league average — the 1.31 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 54 Stabaek games / 54 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stabaek 27% | Draw 29% | Haugesund 45%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 3.70 | Draw 3.45 | Haugesund 2.22. Haugesund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.31 / 1.72) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Haugesund are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Haugesund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Stabaek 40% | Haugesund 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stabaek vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Nadderud Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stabaek 27% | Draw 29% | Haugesund 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Stabaek 1.31 / Haugesund 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Stabaek attack 0.620 / def 1.348 | Haugesund attack 1.038 / def 1.181 | league avg home 1.785 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Stabaek xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Haugesund xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stabaek vs Haugesund kick off?
Stabaek vs Haugesund kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Nadderud Stadion.
What was the final score in Stabaek vs Haugesund?
Stabaek 2 - 1 Haugesund.
Where is Stabaek vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Nadderud Stadion.
What competition is Stabaek vs Haugesund part of?
Stabaek vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stabaek vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Stabaek a 27% chance of winning, Haugesund a 45% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stabaek vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Stabaek and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Stabaek vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Haugesund?
Record (3 meetings): Stabaek 1W | Draws 1 | Haugesund 1W.
What form are Stabaek and Haugesund in?
Stabaek (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Haugesund (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Stabaek's attacking strength (0.62x league average) is weighed against Haugesund's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Stabaek's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
27%
3.76
29%
3.48
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Stabaek xG
Total xG
3.03
1.72
Haugesund xG
3.76
27%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
18%
5.61
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
5%
21.08
12%
8.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.9 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.1 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stabaek vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Stabaek and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Stabaek and 1.72 for Haugesund, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Stabaek vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 54 outings, Stabaek have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 13W 18D 23L record — D-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Stabaek is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Haugesund's form line: 20W 11D 23L from 54 games, 1.31 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-D. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stabaek on 1.06 PPG, Haugesund on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Stabaek have posted 1.11 PPG from 27 outings (7W 9D 11L).
On the road, Haugesund have gone 6W 6D 15L from 27 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Haugesund's season.
The Goals Picture
Stabaek are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.46 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stabaek
Blended
Haugesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stabaek and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Stabaek have gone 13W 18D 23L in their last 54 games (1.06 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 20W 11D 23L in their last 54 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stabaek at home or Haugesund away?
Stabaek's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stabaek at home: 1.11 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stabaek and Haugesund runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 December 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Apr 2023, when Stabaek won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stabaek's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Stabaek
1
Draws
2
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Haugesund?
From 6 meetings on record, Stabaek have won 3, Haugesund have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stabaek and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 3 December 2023, when Haugesund 3-0 Stabaek.
Who has won more matches between Stabaek and Haugesund?
Stabaek have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stabaek 41%, Haugesund 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Stabaek) and 59% (Haugesund).
On the defensive side: Stabaek have failed to score in 41% of games; Haugesund in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stabaek home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stabaek play Haugesund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Stabaek's recent matches and 59% of Haugesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stabaek vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Stabaek's recent games and 59% of Haugesund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stabaek and Haugesund tend to score early?
Stabaek have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Stabaek defy the odds to beat Haugesund 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stabaek beat Haugesund 2-1 at Nadderud Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stabaek 1.31 xG and Haugesund 1.72 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stabaek attack 0.62 / defence 1.35 against Haugesund attack 1.04 / defence 1.18, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stabaek 27% | Draw 29% | Haugesund 45%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Stabaek win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stabaek 61%, Haugesund 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stabaek's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Haugesund's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stabaek 1.06 PPG, Haugesund 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stabaek win broke the near-deadlock. Stabaek (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.