Haugesund 2-0 Kristiansund BK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haugesund at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Haugesund vs Kristiansund BK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Haugesund Sparebank Arena plays host to Haugesund versus Kristiansund BK in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Sunday 8 May 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Haugesund have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Haugesund have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Haugesund are significantly better at Haugesund Sparebank Arena than their overall form suggests.
Kristiansund BK (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Kristiansund BK's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for Haugesund, 1.10 for Kristiansund BK — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Haugesund 2W, Kristiansund BK 1W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 2–3 with Kristiansund BK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Haugesund goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Kristiansund BK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Haugesund 57% and Kristiansund BK 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 63% | Kristiansund BK 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.38 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.849 / defence 1.125 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.742 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.609 / away 1.265. Data: 35 Haugesund games / 34 Kristiansund BK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 44% | Draw 27% | Kristiansund BK 29%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Kristiansund BK 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Haugesund at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Haugesund if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Haugesund 70% | Kristiansund BK 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Kristiansund BK | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Haugesund Sparebank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 8 May 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 44% | Draw 27% | Kristiansund BK 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Haugesund 1.38 / Kristiansund BK 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.849 / def 1.125 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.742 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.609 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Kristiansund BK xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Kristiansund BK kick off?
Haugesund vs Kristiansund BK kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 8 May 2022 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Kristiansund BK?
Haugesund 2 - 0 Kristiansund BK.
Where is Haugesund vs Kristiansund BK being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What competition is Haugesund vs Kristiansund BK part of?
Haugesund vs Kristiansund BK is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Kristiansund BK?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 44% chance of winning, Kristiansund BK a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Kristiansund BK?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Haugesund and Kristiansund BK will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Kristiansund BK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Kristiansund BK?
Record (4 meetings): Haugesund 2W | Draws 1 | Kristiansund BK 1W.
What form are Haugesund and Kristiansund BK in?
Haugesund (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Kristiansund BK (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Haugesund's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Kristiansund BK's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. Flip it around — Kristiansund BK's attack (0.74x) against Haugesund's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 35/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
44%
2.27
27%
3.70
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Haugesund xG
Total xG
2.43
1.06
Kristiansund BK xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
15%
6.51
7%
13.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.8 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Kristiansund BK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Kristiansund BK expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.06 for Kristiansund BK, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Kristiansund BK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Haugesund come into this having played 60 games, going 20W 14D 26L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-L.
On the other side, Kristiansund BK sit at 1.57 PPG from 60 outings (26W 16D 18L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Haugesund against 1.57 for Kristiansund BK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Haugesund's home form reads 14W 6D 10L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Kristiansund BK have taken 1.23 points per game from 30 outings (9W 10D 11L).
Attack vs Defence
Haugesund are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Kristiansund BK are on 1.63 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kristiansund BK in 65%.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Current Season
Kristiansund BK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Kristiansund BK in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 20W 14D 26L in their last 60 games (1.23 PPG), while Kristiansund BK have gone 26W 16D 18L in their last 60 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Kristiansund BK away?
Haugesund's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.60 PPG; Kristiansund BK away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 21 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Haugesund won 3-0 on 20 Jun 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Haugesund have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Kristiansund BK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Haugesund
3
Draws
2
Kristiansund BK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Kristiansund BK?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 5, Kristiansund BK have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Kristiansund BK last play each other?
They last met on 21 September 2025, when Kristiansund BK 2-0 Haugesund.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Kristiansund BK?
Haugesund have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 53%, Kristiansund BK 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Haugesund and 67% for Kristiansund BK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kristiansund BK in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Kristiansund BK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Kristiansund BK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Haugesund's games and 63% of Kristiansund BK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haugesund vs Kristiansund BK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Haugesund's matches and 67% of Kristiansund BK's.
Do Haugesund and Kristiansund BK tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Kristiansund BK in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Haugesund cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Kristiansund BK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haugesund beat Kristiansund BK 2-0 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.38 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.06 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Kristiansund BK landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.85 / defence 1.12 against Kristiansund BK attack 0.74 / defence 1.01, drawn from 35/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 44% | Draw 27% | Kristiansund BK 29%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 63%, Kristiansund BK 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haugesund 1.23 PPG, Kristiansund BK 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Haugesund win broke the near-deadlock. Haugesund (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.