Ham-Kam 0-0 Aalesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ham-Kam at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ham-Kam vs Aalesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ham-Kam and Aalesund meet at Briskeby Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 8 May 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Aalesund have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Aalesund haven't played a Eliteserien game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Aalesund's form when playing away from home: 1W 0D 9L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 3.20 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.86 xG and Aalesund 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 1.125 / defence 0.976 | Aalesund attack 0.890 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.606 / away 1.241. Data: 4 Ham-Kam games / 5 Aalesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 56% | Draw 23% | Aalesund 22%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | Aalesund 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Ham-Kam (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ham-Kam are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Aalesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 8 May 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 56% | Draw 23% | Aalesund 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 56% | xG Ham-Kam 1.86 / Aalesund 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 1.125 / def 0.976 | Aalesund attack 0.890 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.606 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Ham-Kam (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Aalesund xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs Aalesund kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Aalesund kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 8 May 2022 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs Aalesund?
Ham-Kam 0 - 0 Aalesund.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Aalesund being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Aalesund part of?
Ham-Kam vs Aalesund is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Aalesund?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 56% chance of winning, Aalesund a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Ham-Kam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Aalesund?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Ham-Kam and Aalesund will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs Aalesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Aalesund?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ham-Kam and Aalesund in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Aalesund (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ham-Kam's attack rating (1.12) and Aalesund's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.86 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Aalesund's attack (0.89x) against Ham-Kam's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 4/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ham-Kam Win
56%
1.80
23%
4.42
22%
4.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
2.94
1.08
Aalesund xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
4.59
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
16%
6.40
Win to Nil
19%
5.29
3%
29.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 10.6 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs Aalesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and Aalesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 1.08 for Aalesund, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs Aalesund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Pre-Season
Aalesund
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 29 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ham-Kam have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Aalesund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Ham-Kam
3
Draws
0
Aalesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Aalesund?
From 5 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 2, Aalesund have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and Aalesund last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Aalesund 2-2 Ham-Kam.
Who has won more matches between Ham-Kam and Aalesund?
Ham-Kam have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / Aalesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Ham-Kam's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ham-Kam and Aalesund finished level at 0-0 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.86 xG and Aalesund 1.08 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ham-Kam fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Aalesund landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 1.12 / defence 0.98 against Aalesund attack 0.89 / defence 1.03, drawn from 4/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 56% | Draw 23% | Aalesund 22%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.