Viking 5-1 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Viking at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Viking vs Haugesund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Haugesund travel to SR-Bank Arena to take on Viking. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 April 2022, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Viking — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Viking have posted 6W 2D 2L at SR-Bank Arena — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.00 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at SR-Bank Arena this season.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Haugesund have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Haugesund away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Viking are in the better shape of the two on current Eliteserien data — 1.80 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Viking, 1 for Haugesund and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Viking in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 82% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Haugesund in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Viking 68% and Haugesund 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Viking 73% | Haugesund 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 1.62 xG and Haugesund 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.081 / defence 0.758 | Haugesund attack 0.869 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.533 / away 1.231. Viking's defence rating of 0.758 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 34 Viking games / 34 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Viking 57% | Draw 25% | Haugesund 19%. Fair-value odds: Viking 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | Haugesund 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Viking (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Viking are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.7 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Viking 100% | Haugesund 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Apr 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 57% | Draw 25% | Haugesund 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 45% | xG Viking 1.62 / Haugesund 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.081 / def 0.758 | Haugesund attack 0.869 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.533 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Viking (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Viking xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Haugesund xG
45%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs Haugesund kick off?
Viking vs Haugesund kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 30 April 2022 at SR-Bank Arena.
What was the final score in Viking vs Haugesund?
Viking 5 - 1 Haugesund.
Where is Viking vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Haugesund part of?
Viking vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 57% chance of winning, Haugesund a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Viking and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Haugesund?
Record (2 meetings): Viking 0W | Draws 1 | Haugesund 1W.
What form are Viking and Haugesund in?
Viking (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Haugesund (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Viking's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Haugesund's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Viking's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 2-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
57%
1.76
25%
4.05
19%
5.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Viking xG
Total xG
2.44
0.81
Haugesund xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
5.38
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
20%
5.08
Win to Nil
25%
3.97
4%
27.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 11.5 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.4 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Viking and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Viking and 0.81 for Haugesund, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Haugesund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Viking's recent record stands at 29W 14D 17L from 60 games, a 1.68 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five.
Haugesund, meanwhile, have gone 20W 14D 26L across 60 games — 1.23 PPG, with D-D-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Viking by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Haugesund heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Viking have managed 16W 7D 7L from 30 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Haugesund's away record stands at 6W 8D 16L across 30 trips, a 0.87 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Viking come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Viking are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.42 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Current Season
Haugesund
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Viking and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 29W 14D 17L in their last 60 games (1.68 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 20W 14D 26L in their last 60 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or Haugesund away?
Viking's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 1.83 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Viking and Haugesund runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Viking have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Apr 2022, when Viking won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Viking's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Viking
1
Draws
3
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Haugesund?
From 10 meetings on record, Viking have won 6, Haugesund have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Viking and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2025, when Haugesund 1-4 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Viking and Haugesund?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Viking at 80%, Haugesund at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Viking and 57% for Haugesund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Haugesund in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Viking play Haugesund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Viking's games and 60% of Haugesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Viking vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Viking's matches and 57% of Haugesund's.
Do Viking and Haugesund tend to score early?
Viking have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Viking run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Haugesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Haugesund 5-1 at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 1.62 xG and Haugesund 0.81 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Viking beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.08 / defence 0.76 against Haugesund attack 0.87 / defence 0.98, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Viking 57% | Draw 25% | Haugesund 19%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 73%, Haugesund 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Haugesund's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.23. That form edge translated into the three points. Viking (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.27 average — above their attacking norm. Haugesund (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.