Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-0 ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 5 as Sarpsborg 08 FF welcome ODD Ballklubb to Sarpsborg Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 May 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Sarpsborg Stadion, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, ODD Ballklubb stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
ODD Ballklubb's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Sarpsborg 08 FF carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 0 for ODD Ballklubb and 3 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sarpsborg 08 FF trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
ODD Ballklubb trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sarpsborg 08 FF 52% versus ODD Ballklubb 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 52% | ODD Ballklubb 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.31 xG and ODD Ballklubb 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.838 / defence 0.927 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.850 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.236. Data: 34 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 34 ODD Ballklubb games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 44% | Draw 28% | ODD Ballklubb 28%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | ODD Ballklubb 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sarpsborg 08 FF as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% | ODD Ballklubb 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 44% | Draw 28% | ODD Ballklubb 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.31 / ODD Ballklubb 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.838 / def 0.927 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.850 / def 0.984 | league avg home 1.587 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
0.97
ODD Ballklubb xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 1 - 0 ODD Ballklubb.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 44% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb?
Record (4 meetings): Sarpsborg 08 FF 1W | Draws 3 | ODD Ballklubb 0W.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack at 0.84x the league average against ODD Ballklubb's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, ODD Ballklubb's attack versus Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
44%
2.26
28%
3.58
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
2.28
0.97
ODD Ballklubb xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
17%
5.98
7%
13.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.0 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 0.97 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Sarpsborg 08 FF have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 19W 14D 27L record — W-D-W-L-L across the most recent five.
ODD Ballklubb's form line: 21W 13D 26L from 60 games, 1.27 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sarpsborg 08 FF on 1.18 PPG, ODD Ballklubb on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 1.47 PPG from 30 outings (12W 8D 10L).
On the road, ODD Ballklubb have gone 8W 7D 15L from 30 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sarpsborg 08 FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; ODD Ballklubb are on 1.60 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: ODD Ballklubb in 62%.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Current Season
ODD Ballklubb
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 19W 14D 27L in their last 60 games (1.18 PPG), while ODD Ballklubb have gone 21W 13D 26L in their last 60 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or ODD Ballklubb away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.47 PPG; ODD Ballklubb away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 August 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Aug 2023, when Sarpsborg 08 FF won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's record when hosting ODD Ballklubb specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sarpsborg 08 FF
5
Draws
2
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb?
From 10 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 3, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 11 August 2024, when ODD Ballklubb 1-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 43%, ODD Ballklubb 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Sarpsborg 08 FF) and 53% (ODD Ballklubb).
On the defensive side: Sarpsborg 08 FF keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Sarpsborg 08 FF have failed to score in 30% of games; ODD Ballklubb in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play ODD Ballklubb?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent matches and 50% of ODD Ballklubb's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ODD Ballklubb usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent games and 53% of ODD Ballklubb's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and ODD Ballklubb tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, ODD Ballklubb in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sarpsborg 08 FF edge out ODD Ballklubb 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sarpsborg 08 FF beat ODD Ballklubb 1-0 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.31 xG and ODD Ballklubb 0.97 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. ODD Ballklubb landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.84 / defence 0.93 against ODD Ballklubb attack 0.85 / defence 0.98, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 44% | Draw 28% | ODD Ballklubb 28%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 52%, ODD Ballklubb 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.18 PPG, ODD Ballklubb 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sarpsborg 08 FF win broke the near-deadlock. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.