Bodo/Glimt 1-1 Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom meet at Aspmyra Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 8 May 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bodo/Glimt's overall Eliteserien record this term: 6W 4D 0L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: D W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Bodo/Glimt's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Aspmyra Stadion this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Lillestrom have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D L W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Lillestrom away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Bodo/Glimt's 2.20 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Lillestrom's 1.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Bodo/Glimt, 0 for Lillestrom and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2021, ended 2–0 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Lillestrom — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodo/Glimt 47% versus Lillestrom 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bodo/Glimt 50% | Lillestrom 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.13 xG and Lillestrom 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.363 / defence 1.004 | Lillestrom attack 1.163 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.609 / away 1.265. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.363 — their λ of 2.13 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 34 Bodo/Glimt games / 35 Lillestrom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 53% | Draw 21% | Lillestrom 26%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.89 | Draw 4.76 | Lillestrom 3.85. Bodo/Glimt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.61. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.61 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.13 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.61 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: Bodo/Glimt 50% | Lillestrom 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 8 May 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 53% | Draw 21% | Lillestrom 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 68% | xG Bodo/Glimt 2.13 / Lillestrom 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.363 / def 1.004 | Lillestrom attack 1.163 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.609 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Lillestrom xG
68%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 8 May 2022 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom?
Bodo/Glimt 1 - 1 Lillestrom.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 53% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 26% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom?
Record (2 meetings): Bodo/Glimt 2W | Draws 0 | Lillestrom 0W.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-D-W. Lillestrom (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Bodo/Glimt's attack rating (1.36) and Lillestrom's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 2.13 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lillestrom's attack (1.16x) against Bodo/Glimt's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 34/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 2-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
53%
1.90
21%
4.81
26%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
3.61
1.48
Lillestrom xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.81
21%
Draw
3.77
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.13
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
12%
8.46
Win to Nil
12%
8.32
3%
31.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.5 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 1.48 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 3.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bodo/Glimt's recent record stands at 18W 9D 3L from 30 games, a 2.10 PPG return, with D-W-D-D-W in the last five.
Lillestrom, meanwhile, have gone 14W 7D 9L across 30 games — 1.63 PPG, with D-L-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bodo/Glimt by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lillestrom heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Bodo/Glimt have managed 10W 4D 1L from 15 games — 2.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lillestrom's away record stands at 6W 4D 5L across 15 trips, a 1.47 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Lillestrom are on 1.63 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lillestrom in 63%.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
Lillestrom
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 18W 9D 3L in their last 30 games (2.10 PPG), while Lillestrom have gone 14W 7D 9L in their last 30 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Lillestrom away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 2.27 PPG; Lillestrom away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Bodo/Glimt or Lillestrom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Lillestrom in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 31 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Bodo/Glimt have won the last 7 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won 0-5 on 14 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bodo/Glimt have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lillestrom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Bodo/Glimt
1
Draws
0
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom?
From 10 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 9, Lillestrom have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom last play each other?
They last met on 31 July 2026, when Bodo/Glimt 4-0 Lillestrom.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 47%, Lillestrom 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for Bodo/Glimt and 73% for Lillestrom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play Lillestrom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Bodo/Glimt's games and 80% of Lillestrom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 73% of Lillestrom's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Lillestrom in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 5, as Bodo/Glimt and Lillestrom drew 1-1 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 2.13 xG and Lillestrom 1.48 xG, a combined 3.61. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Bodo/Glimt fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.36 / defence 1.00 against Lillestrom attack 1.16 / defence 0.97, drawn from 34/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 53% | Draw 21% | Lillestrom 26%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 50%, Lillestrom 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Lillestrom's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.63. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.27 scoring average — below par going forward. Lillestrom (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.