Ham-Kam 0-0 Molde – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Molde at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ham-Kam vs Molde encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Briskeby Arena plays host to Ham-Kam versus Molde in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Sunday 3 July 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ham-Kam have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Briskeby Arena, Ham-Kam have gone 2W 3D 1L this season (6 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Molde (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Molde, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Molde's away record: 8W 1D 1L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Molde are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Ham-Kam — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Molde — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ham-Kam 82% and Molde 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Ham-Kam 64% | Molde 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.09 xG and Molde 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.991 / defence 0.977 | Molde attack 1.094 / defence 0.693. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.412. Molde's defence strength of 0.693 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 11 Ham-Kam games / 41 Molde games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 27% | Draw 26% | Molde 47%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 3.70 | Draw 3.85 | Molde 2.13. Molde hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Molde as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Molde if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ham-Kam 67% | Molde 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Molde | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Jul 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 27% | Draw 26% | Molde 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Ham-Kam 1.09 / Molde 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 0.991 / def 0.977 | Molde attack 1.094 / def 0.693 | league avg home 1.589 / away 1.412 • Poisson stance: Molde (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Molde xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs Molde kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Molde kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 3 July 2022 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs Molde?
Ham-Kam 0 - 0 Molde.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Molde being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Molde part of?
Ham-Kam vs Molde is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Molde?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 27% chance of winning, Molde a 47% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Molde?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Ham-Kam and Molde will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs Molde have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Molde?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ham-Kam and Molde in?
Ham-Kam (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. Molde (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Ham-Kam's attack at 0.99x the league average against Molde's defence at 0.69x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Molde's attack (1.09x) against Ham-Kam's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 11/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.6%), 1-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
27%
3.65
26%
3.89
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
2.60
1.51
Molde xG
3.65
27%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
22%
4.53
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
6%
16.50
16%
6.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 11.2 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.7 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs Molde?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and Molde expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 1.51 for Molde, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs Molde?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 11 outings, Ham-Kam have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 3W 6D 2L record — D-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Molde's form line: 8W 1D 2L from 11 games, 2.27 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Molde is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Molde are the form team by 0.91 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ham-Kam.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ham-Kam have posted 1.60 PPG from 5 outings (2W 2D 1L).
On the road, Molde have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 away games — 2.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Molde come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ham-Kam are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Molde are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ham-Kam have seen both teams score in 82% of their recent games; Molde in 64%.
Defensively: Molde in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Blended
Molde
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ham-Kam and Molde in coming into this match?
Ham-Kam have gone 3W 6D 2L in their last 11 games (1.36 PPG), while Molde have gone 8W 1D 2L in their last 11 (2.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ham-Kam at home or Molde away?
Molde's away record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ham-Kam at home: 1.60 PPG; Molde away: 2.60 PPG.
Have Ham-Kam or Molde been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ham-Kam have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Molde in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Molde go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Molde won 5-0 on 9 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ham-Kam have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Molde — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Ham-Kam
2
Draws
6
Molde
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Molde?
From 9 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 1, Molde have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and Molde last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Molde 4-1 Ham-Kam.
Who has won more matches between Ham-Kam and Molde?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ham-Kam 60%, Molde 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Ham-Kam and 60% for Molde. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ham-Kam keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Molde in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / Molde away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ham-Kam play Molde?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Ham-Kam's games and 60% of Molde's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ham-Kam vs Molde usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Ham-Kam's matches and 60% of Molde's.
Do Ham-Kam and Molde tend to score early?
Ham-Kam have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Molde in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ham-Kam's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ham-Kam and Molde finished level at 0-0 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.09 xG and Molde 1.51 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ham-Kam fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Molde landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.99 / defence 0.98 against Molde attack 1.09 / defence 0.69, drawn from 11/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 27% | Draw 26% | Molde 47%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 64%, Molde 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ham-Kam's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 82% of their matches — today it did not.
Molde's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 2.27 PPG against 1.36. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Molde (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.