Haugesund 0-4 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Bodo/Glimt travel to Haugesund Stadion to take on Haugesund. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 9 December 2020, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Haugesund have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Haugesund Stadion, Haugesund have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bodo/Glimt — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bodo/Glimt's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bodo/Glimt are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Haugesund register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Bodo/Glimt in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Haugesund trading profile (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Bodo/Glimt trading profile (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 93% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 68%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Haugesund 57% and Bodo/Glimt 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Haugesund 57% | Bodo/Glimt 89%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.53 xG and Bodo/Glimt 2.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.954 / defence 1.320 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.323 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.330. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack strength of 1.323 — the away xG of 2.32 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 28 Haugesund games / 28 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 24% | Draw 21% | Bodo/Glimt 55%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 4.17 | Draw 4.76 | Bodo/Glimt 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.85. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.85 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 2.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 74% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 71%. Form rates corroborate: Haugesund 60% | Bodo/Glimt 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Haugesund Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 9 Dec 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 24% | Draw 21% | Bodo/Glimt 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 71% | xG Haugesund 1.53 / Bodo/Glimt 2.32 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.954 / def 1.320 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.323 / def 1.178 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.330 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
2.32
Bodo/Glimt xG
71%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 9 December 2020 at Haugesund Stadion.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt?
Haugesund 0 - 4 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Stadion.
What competition is Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 24% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 55% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt in?
Haugesund (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Haugesund's attack at 0.95x the league average against Bodo/Glimt's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bodo/Glimt's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 2.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 8.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.5%), 1-3 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
24%
4.10
21%
4.78
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.5%
Draw
1 – 3
6.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Haugesund xG
Total xG
3.85
2.32
Bodo/Glimt xG
4.10
24%
Home win
4.78
21%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.40
29%
BTTS No
3.49
Clean Sheet
10%
10.20
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
2%
41.84
12%
8.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 3.2 | 7.5 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.8 | 6.7 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Haugesund and 2.32 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 3.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Haugesund come into this having played 28 games, going 10W 6D 12L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-D.
On the other side, Bodo/Glimt sit at 2.68 PPG from 28 outings (24W 3D 1L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.39 PPG clear of Haugesund — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Haugesund's home form reads 6W 3D 5L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Bodo/Glimt have taken 2.36 points per game from 14 outings (10W 3D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Haugesund are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 3.43 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt in 75%.
Last 28 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Current Season
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 10W 6D 12L in their last 28 games (1.29 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 24W 3D 1L in their last 28 (2.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (2.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.50 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 5 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bodo/Glimt have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Jun 2025, when Bodo/Glimt won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haugesund's record when hosting Bodo/Glimt specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Haugesund
2
Draws
8
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 0, Bodo/Glimt have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 5 October 2025, when Bodo/Glimt 2-0 Haugesund.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Haugesund at 57%, Bodo/Glimt at 86%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Haugesund and 93% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 71% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Bodo/Glimt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Haugesund's games and 86% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Haugesund's matches and 93% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bodo/Glimt run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Haugesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Haugesund 0-4 at Haugesund Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.53 xG and Bodo/Glimt 2.32 xG, a combined 3.85. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Haugesund fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Bodo/Glimt outscored their 2.32 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.95 / defence 1.32 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.32 / defence 1.18, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 24% | Draw 21% | Bodo/Glimt 55%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 73% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 57%, Bodo/Glimt 89%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.68 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.86 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.