Stabaek 2-2 Kristiansund BK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kristiansund BK at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stabaek vs Kristiansund BK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Kristiansund BK travel to Nadderud Stadion to take on Stabaek. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 December 2020, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Stabaek have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stabaek have posted 3W 4D 3L at Nadderud Stadion — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kristiansund BK stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Kristiansund BK's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Stabaek 1.30 PPG, Kristiansund BK 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Stabaek, 0 for Kristiansund BK and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Jul 2020, ended 2–1 with Stabaek winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Stabaek in-play and half-time data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Kristiansund BK in-play and half-time data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Stabaek 50% and Kristiansund BK 82% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stabaek 50% | Kristiansund BK 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 1.07 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.786 / defence 1.052 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.935 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.344 / away 1.369. Stabaek's attack strength of 0.786 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 28 Stabaek games / 28 Kristiansund BK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stabaek 28% | Draw 30% | Kristiansund BK 42%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 3.57 | Draw 3.33 | Kristiansund BK 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kristiansund BK at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kristiansund BK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stabaek 50% | Kristiansund BK 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stabaek vs Kristiansund BK | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Nadderud Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Dec 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stabaek 28% | Draw 30% | Kristiansund BK 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Stabaek 1.07 / Kristiansund BK 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Stabaek attack 0.786 / def 1.052 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.935 / def 1.012 | league avg home 1.344 / away 1.369 • Poisson stance: Kristiansund BK (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Stabaek xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Kristiansund BK xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stabaek vs Kristiansund BK kick off?
Stabaek vs Kristiansund BK kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 13 December 2020 at Nadderud Stadion.
What was the final score in Stabaek vs Kristiansund BK?
Stabaek 2 - 2 Kristiansund BK.
Where is Stabaek vs Kristiansund BK being played?
The match is being played at Nadderud Stadion.
What competition is Stabaek vs Kristiansund BK part of?
Stabaek vs Kristiansund BK is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stabaek vs Kristiansund BK?
Our statistical model gives Stabaek a 28% chance of winning, Kristiansund BK a 42% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Kristiansund BK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stabaek vs Kristiansund BK?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Stabaek and Kristiansund BK will score (BTTS).
Will Stabaek vs Kristiansund BK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Kristiansund BK?
Record (1 meetings): Stabaek 1W | Draws 0 | Kristiansund BK 0W.
What form are Stabaek and Kristiansund BK in?
Stabaek (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Kristiansund BK (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Stabaek's attack at 0.79x the league average against Kristiansund BK's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kristiansund BK's attack versus Stabaek's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kristiansund BK Win
28%
3.54
30%
3.31
42%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Stabaek xG
Total xG
2.42
1.35
Kristiansund BK xG
3.54
28%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.41
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
7%
13.60
14%
7.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 12.0 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.9 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stabaek vs Kristiansund BK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Stabaek and Kristiansund BK expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Stabaek and 1.35 for Kristiansund BK, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Stabaek vs Kristiansund BK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stabaek's recent record stands at 8W 11D 9L from 28 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-L in the last five.
Kristiansund BK, meanwhile, have gone 12W 11D 5L across 28 games — 1.68 PPG, with D-W-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Kristiansund BK by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stabaek heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Stabaek have managed 5W 5D 4L from 14 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kristiansund BK's away record stands at 5W 7D 2L across 14 trips, a 1.57 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Stabaek are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Kristiansund BK are on 1.93 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kristiansund BK in 82%.
Last 28 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stabaek
Current Season
Kristiansund BK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stabaek and Kristiansund BK in coming into this match?
Stabaek have gone 8W 11D 9L in their last 28 games (1.25 PPG), while Kristiansund BK have gone 12W 11D 5L in their last 28 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stabaek at home or Kristiansund BK away?
Kristiansund BK's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stabaek at home: 1.43 PPG; Kristiansund BK away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stabaek and Kristiansund BK runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2021, when Kristiansund BK won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stabaek's record when hosting Kristiansund BK specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Stabaek
1
Draws
1
Kristiansund BK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Kristiansund BK?
From 4 meetings on record, Stabaek have won 2, Kristiansund BK have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stabaek and Kristiansund BK last play each other?
They last met on 21 November 2021, when Stabaek 3-0 Kristiansund BK.
Who has won more matches between Stabaek and Kristiansund BK?
Stabaek have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stabaek 36%, Kristiansund BK 86% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Stabaek) and 64% (Kristiansund BK).
On the defensive side: Stabaek keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Stabaek have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stabaek home games / Kristiansund BK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stabaek play Kristiansund BK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 36% of Stabaek's games and 86% of Kristiansund BK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stabaek vs Kristiansund BK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Stabaek's recent games and 64% of Kristiansund BK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stabaek and Kristiansund BK tend to score early?
Stabaek have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Kristiansund BK in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stabaek and Kristiansund BK share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stabaek and Kristiansund BK finished level at 2-2 at Nadderud Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stabaek 1.07 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.35 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Stabaek beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stabaek attack 0.79 / defence 1.05 against Kristiansund BK attack 0.94 / defence 1.01, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stabaek 28% | Draw 30% | Kristiansund BK 42%, with Kristiansund BK to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stabaek 50%, Kristiansund BK 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stabaek's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 82% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Kristiansund BK arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Stabaek (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.