ODD Ballklubb 1-4 Molde – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Molde at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ODD Ballklubb vs Molde encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
ODD Ballklubb host Molde at Skagerak Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 16 December 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, ODD Ballklubb stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ODD Ballklubb's home record at Skagerak Arena: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — ODD Ballklubb are significantly better at Skagerak Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Molde have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Molde away from home this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Molde — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. ODD Ballklubb register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Molde in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for ODD Ballklubb, 1 for Molde and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2020, ended 0–2 with Molde winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
ODD Ballklubb in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Molde in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — ODD Ballklubb 52% and Molde 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (ODD Ballklubb 59% | Molde 89%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 1.71 xG and Molde 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.062 / defence 1.076 | Molde attack 1.175 / defence 1.187. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.359. Data: 27 ODD Ballklubb games / 28 Molde games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 37% | Draw 25% | Molde 38%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 2.70 | Draw 4.00 | Molde 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.72) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Molde at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Molde offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.43 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: ODD Ballklubb 60% | Molde 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Molde | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 16 Dec 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 37% | Draw 25% | Molde 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 69% | xG ODD Ballklubb 1.71 / Molde 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.062 / def 1.076 | Molde attack 1.175 / def 1.187 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: Molde (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Molde xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Molde kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Molde kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 16 December 2020 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Molde?
ODD Ballklubb 1 - 4 Molde.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Molde being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Molde part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Molde is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Molde?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 37% chance of winning, Molde a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Molde?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Molde will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Molde have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Molde?
Record (1 meetings): ODD Ballklubb 0W | Draws 0 | Molde 1W.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Molde in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Molde (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from ODD Ballklubb's attack rating (1.06) and Molde's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Molde's attack versus ODD Ballklubb's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.2%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
37%
2.68
25%
3.98
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
3.43
1.72
Molde xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.18
Clean Sheet
18%
5.58
18%
5.53
Win to Nil
7%
14.96
7%
14.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 9.5 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.1 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Molde?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Molde expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 1.72 for Molde, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Molde?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
ODD Ballklubb's recent record stands at 13W 4D 10L from 27 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Molde, meanwhile, have gone 17W 2D 8L across 27 games — 1.96 PPG, with D-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Molde is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: ODD Ballklubb on 1.59 PPG, Molde on 1.96. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, ODD Ballklubb have managed 8W 2D 3L from 13 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.59 PPG overall — ODD Ballklubb are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Molde's away record stands at 6W 1D 6L across 13 trips, a 1.46 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.96 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Molde's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ODD Ballklubb come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Molde are on 2.37 scored and 1.26 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Molde in 70%.
Last 27 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
Molde
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Molde in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 13W 4D 10L in their last 27 games (1.59 PPG), while Molde have gone 17W 2D 8L in their last 27 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Molde away?
ODD Ballklubb's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 2.00 PPG; Molde away: 1.46 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 May 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jul 2021, when Molde won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
ODD Ballklubb's record when hosting Molde specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
ODD Ballklubb
0
Draws
8
Molde
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Molde?
From 10 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, Molde have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Molde last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2024, when ODD Ballklubb 0-4 Molde.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Molde?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — ODD Ballklubb at 62%, Molde at 77%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for ODD Ballklubb and 100% for Molde. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: ODD Ballklubb keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Molde away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Molde?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of ODD Ballklubb's games and 77% of Molde's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Molde usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of ODD Ballklubb's matches and 100% of Molde's.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Molde tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Molde in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Molde run riot with a 1-4 hammering of ODD Ballklubb.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Molde beat ODD Ballklubb 1-4 at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 1.71 xG and Molde 1.72 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Molde outscored their 1.72 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 1.06 / defence 1.08 against Molde attack 1.18 / defence 1.19, drawn from 27/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 37% | Draw 25% | Molde 38%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 74% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 59%, Molde 89%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Molde's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — ODD Ballklubb 1.59 PPG, Molde 1.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Molde win broke the near-deadlock. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Molde (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.08 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.