Stromsgodset 2-2 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Haugesund at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stromsgodset vs Haugesund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Marienlyst Stadion plays host to Stromsgodset versus Haugesund in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Sunday 6 December 2020 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Stromsgodset's overall Eliteserien record this term: 0W 5D 5L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Marienlyst Stadion, Stromsgodset have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Haugesund have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Haugesund have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Haugesund arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Stromsgodset have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Haugesund in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Stromsgodset half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Haugesund half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stromsgodset 62% versus Haugesund 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stromsgodset 62% | Haugesund 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 1.26 xG and Haugesund 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 0.756 / defence 1.337 | Haugesund attack 0.768 / defence 1.228. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.326. Stromsgodset's attack strength of 0.756 is below the league average — the 1.26 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Haugesund bring a strong defensive rating of 1.228 — this is suppressing Stromsgodset's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Stromsgodset games / 27 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 34% | Draw 28% | Haugesund 38%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Haugesund 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Haugesund are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Haugesund if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Stromsgodset 60% | Haugesund 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Dec 2020, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 34% | Draw 28% | Haugesund 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Stromsgodset 1.26 / Haugesund 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 0.756 / def 1.337 | Haugesund attack 0.768 / def 1.228 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.326 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Haugesund xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stromsgodset vs Haugesund kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Haugesund kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 6 December 2020 at Marienlyst Stadion.
What was the final score in Stromsgodset vs Haugesund?
Stromsgodset 2 - 2 Haugesund.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Haugesund part of?
Stromsgodset vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 34% chance of winning, Haugesund a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Stromsgodset and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Stromsgodset vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Haugesund?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stromsgodset and Haugesund in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Haugesund (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Stromsgodset's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Haugesund's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. Flip it around — Haugesund's attack (0.77x) against Stromsgodset's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 26/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 1-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
34%
2.98
28%
3.53
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
2.62
1.36
Haugesund xG
2.98
34%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
9%
11.62
11%
9.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 9.9 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.5 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.9 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 1.36 for Haugesund, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 26 outings, Stromsgodset have picked up 0.92 PPG on a 5W 9D 12L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Haugesund's form line: 10W 5D 11L from 26 games, 1.35 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-D. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Haugesund are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Stromsgodset.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Stromsgodset have posted 1.08 PPG from 13 outings (3W 5D 5L).
On the road, Haugesund have gone 4W 2D 7L from 13 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.27 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stromsgodset have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 26 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Blended
Haugesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stromsgodset and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 5W 9D 12L in their last 26 games (0.92 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 10W 5D 11L in their last 26 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or Haugesund away?
Stromsgodset's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.08 PPG; Haugesund away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 3 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Stromsgodset go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Stromsgodset won 0-5 on 6 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stromsgodset have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Haugesund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Stromsgodset
2
Draws
4
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Haugesund?
From 10 meetings on record, Stromsgodset have won 4, Haugesund have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 3 August 2025, when Stromsgodset 2-0 Haugesund.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stromsgodset 62%, Haugesund 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Stromsgodset) and 54% (Haugesund).
On the defensive side: Haugesund in 31%; Stromsgodset have failed to score in 31% of games; Haugesund in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stromsgodset play Haugesund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Stromsgodset's games and 54% of Haugesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stromsgodset vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Stromsgodset's recent games and 54% of Haugesund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stromsgodset and Haugesund tend to score early?
Stromsgodset have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stromsgodset and Haugesund share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stromsgodset and Haugesund finished level at 2-2 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 1.26 xG and Haugesund 1.36 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 0.76 / defence 1.34 against Haugesund attack 0.77 / defence 1.23, drawn from 26/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 34% | Draw 28% | Haugesund 38%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 62%, Haugesund 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Haugesund's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Haugesund arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Haugesund (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.