Aalesund 1-4 Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stromsgodset at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Aalesund vs Stromsgodset fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Stromsgodset travel to Color Line Stadion to take on Aalesund. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 9 December 2020, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Aalesund stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Aalesund's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 games at Color Line Stadion this term (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Stromsgodset have recorded 0W 5D 5L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stromsgodset's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Aalesund at 0.40 PPG versus Stromsgodset's 0.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Aalesund register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Stromsgodset in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Aalesund have won 0, Stromsgodset 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jun 2020, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Aalesund trading profile (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 59%.
Stromsgodset trading profile (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Aalesund 67% and Stromsgodset 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Aalesund 74% | Stromsgodset 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aalesund 1.16 xG and Stromsgodset 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aalesund attack 0.648 / defence 1.541 | Stromsgodset attack 0.751 / defence 1.316. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.330. Aalesund's attack strength of 0.648 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Stromsgodset bring a strong defensive rating of 1.316 — this is suppressing Aalesund's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Aalesund games / 27 Stromsgodset games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aalesund 28% | Draw 27% | Stromsgodset 45%. Fair-value odds: Aalesund 3.57 | Draw 3.70 | Stromsgodset 2.22. Stromsgodset hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stromsgodset as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stromsgodset offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Aalesund 70% | Stromsgodset 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aalesund vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Color Line Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 9 Dec 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aalesund 28% | Draw 27% | Stromsgodset 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Aalesund 1.16 / Stromsgodset 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Aalesund attack 0.648 / def 1.541 | Stromsgodset attack 0.751 / def 1.316 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.330 • Poisson stance: Stromsgodset (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Aalesund xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Stromsgodset xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aalesund vs Stromsgodset kick off?
Aalesund vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 9 December 2020 at Color Line Stadion.
What was the final score in Aalesund vs Stromsgodset?
Aalesund 1 - 4 Stromsgodset.
Where is Aalesund vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at Color Line Stadion.
What competition is Aalesund vs Stromsgodset part of?
Aalesund vs Stromsgodset is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Aalesund vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives Aalesund a 28% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 45% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Stromsgodset the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aalesund vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Aalesund and Stromsgodset will score (BTTS).
Will Aalesund vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Stromsgodset?
Record (1 meetings): Aalesund 0W | Draws 1 | Stromsgodset 0W.
What form are Aalesund and Stromsgodset in?
Aalesund (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Stromsgodset (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Aalesund's attacking strength (0.65x league average) is weighed against Stromsgodset's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. The same calculation in reverse, Stromsgodset's attack versus Aalesund's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
28%
3.60
27%
3.68
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Aalesund xG
Total xG
2.70
1.54
Stromsgodset xG
3.60
28%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
21%
4.66
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
6%
16.74
14%
7.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 10.3 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.0 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.0 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aalesund vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Aalesund and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Aalesund and 1.54 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Aalesund vs Stromsgodset?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Aalesund come into this having played 27 games, going 2W 5D 20L for 0.41 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Aalesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Stromsgodset sit at 0.93 PPG from 27 outings (5W 10D 12L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stromsgodset carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Aalesund — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Aalesund's home form reads 1W 3D 9L across 13 games on their own ground, a 0.46 PPG return.
Away from home, Stromsgodset have taken 0.77 points per game from 13 outings (2W 4D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Aalesund are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 2.74 conceded per game recently; Stromsgodset are on 1.26 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Aalesund have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Stromsgodset in 63%.
Last 27 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aalesund
Blended
Stromsgodset
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aalesund and Stromsgodset in coming into this match?
Aalesund have gone 2W 5D 20L in their last 27 games (0.41 PPG), while Stromsgodset have gone 5W 10D 12L in their last 27 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aalesund at home or Stromsgodset away?
Stromsgodset's away record (0.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aalesund at home: 0.46 PPG; Stromsgodset away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 July 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Dec 2020, when Stromsgodset won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Aalesund's record when hosting Stromsgodset specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Aalesund
1
Draws
2
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Stromsgodset?
From 6 meetings on record, Aalesund have won 3, Stromsgodset have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Aalesund and Stromsgodset last play each other?
They last met on 30 July 2023, when Aalesund 1-0 Stromsgodset.
Who has won more matches between Aalesund and Stromsgodset?
Aalesund have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Aalesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Aalesund at 77%, Stromsgodset at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Aalesund and 69% for Stromsgodset. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stromsgodset in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aalesund home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aalesund play Stromsgodset?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of Aalesund's games and 62% of Stromsgodset's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Aalesund vs Stromsgodset usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Aalesund's matches and 69% of Stromsgodset's.
Do Aalesund and Stromsgodset tend to score early?
Aalesund have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Stromsgodset in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Stromsgodset run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Aalesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stromsgodset beat Aalesund 1-4 at Color Line Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aalesund 1.16 xG and Stromsgodset 1.54 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Stromsgodset outscored their 1.54 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aalesund attack 0.65 / defence 1.54 against Stromsgodset attack 0.75 / defence 1.32, drawn from 28/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aalesund 28% | Draw 27% | Stromsgodset 45%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aalesund 74%, Stromsgodset 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aalesund's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Stromsgodset's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Stromsgodset arrived the stronger side — 0.93 PPG against 0.41. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Aalesund (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.