Sandefjord 1-1 Brann – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 38%, yet in-form Brann provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sandefjord vs Brann fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sandefjord host Brann at Jotun Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 29 October 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sandefjord have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandefjord at Jotun Arena this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Brann — All Games: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brann away from home this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Brann's 2.40 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Sandefjord's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Sandefjord, 1 for Brann and 3 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sandefjord in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Brann in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandefjord 56% versus Brann 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandefjord 60% | Brann 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.31 xG and Brann 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 0.890 / defence 0.965 | Brann attack 0.973 / defence 0.795. League average goals — home 1.849 / away 1.357. Brann's defence strength of 0.795 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 55 Sandefjord games / 25 Brann games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 38% | Draw 26% | Brann 36%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Brann 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sandefjord as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Brann (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sandefjord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sandefjord 60% | Brann 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Jotun Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Oct 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 38% | Draw 26% | Brann 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Sandefjord 1.31 / Brann 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 0.890 / def 0.965 | Brann attack 0.973 / def 0.795 | league avg home 1.849 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Brann xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Brann kick off?
Sandefjord vs Brann kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 29 October 2023 at Jotun Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Brann?
Sandefjord 1 - 1 Brann.
Where is Sandefjord vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Jotun Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Brann part of?
Sandefjord vs Brann is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 38% chance of winning, Brann a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Sandefjord and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Brann?
Record (4 meetings): Sandefjord 0W | Draws 3 | Brann 1W.
What form are Sandefjord and Brann in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Brann (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sandefjord's attack at 0.89x the league average against Brann's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Brann's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
38%
2.66
26%
3.78
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
2.58
1.27
Brann xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
11%
9.52
10%
10.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.6 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.2 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Sandefjord and 1.27 for Brann, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Brann?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sandefjord come into this having played 25 games, going 5W 6D 14L for 0.84 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Brann sit at 2.04 PPG from 25 outings (16W 3D 6L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brann carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.20 PPG clear of Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Sandefjord's home form reads 4W 4D 4L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.84 PPG overall — Sandefjord are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Brann have taken 1.58 points per game from 12 outings (6W 1D 5L). That's a step down from their 2.04 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Brann's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Sandefjord are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.84 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 25 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Blended
Brann
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Brann in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 5W 6D 14L in their last 25 games (0.84 PPG), while Brann have gone 16W 3D 6L in their last 25 (2.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Brann away?
Brann's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.33 PPG; Brann away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Sandefjord or Brann been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sandefjord have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Brann in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Sep 2025, when Brann won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sandefjord's record when hosting Brann specifically: 0W 4D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Sandefjord
5
Draws
4
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Brann?
From 10 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 1, Brann have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Brann 0-1 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Brann?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sandefjord see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandefjord 50%, Brann 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Sandefjord) and 50% (Brann).
On the defensive side: Sandefjord keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Brann in 33%; Sandefjord have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Brann?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sandefjord's recent matches and 50% of Brann's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sandefjord vs Brann usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Sandefjord's recent games and 50% of Brann's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sandefjord and Brann tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Brann in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sandefjord and Brann share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jotun Arena, Regular Season - 26, as Sandefjord and Brann drew 1-1 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.31 xG and Brann 1.27 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 0.89 / defence 0.96 against Brann attack 0.97 / defence 0.80, drawn from 55/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 38% | Draw 26% | Brann 36%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 60%, Brann 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Brann's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Brann arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.