Sarpsborg 08 FF 4-3 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 12 as Sarpsborg 08 FF welcome Sandefjord to Sarpsborg Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 3 July 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sarpsborg 08 FF — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sarpsborg 08 FF at Sarpsborg Stadion this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sandefjord stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Sandefjord have posted 5W 0D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Sarpsborg 08 FF) versus 1.30 (Sandefjord). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 0 for Sandefjord and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2021, ended 5–0 with Sarpsborg 08 FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sarpsborg 08 FF in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Sandefjord in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sarpsborg 08 FF 62% versus Sandefjord 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 60% | Sandefjord 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.56 xG and Sandefjord 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.116 / defence 0.941 | Sandefjord attack 1.092 / defence 0.880. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.412. Data: 41 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 40 Sandefjord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 40% | Draw 24% | Sandefjord 35%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.50 | Draw 4.17 | Sandefjord 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sarpsborg 08 FF as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% | Sandefjord 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Jul 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 40% | Draw 24% | Sandefjord 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.56 / Sandefjord 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.116 / def 0.941 | Sandefjord attack 1.092 / def 0.880 | league avg home 1.589 / away 1.412 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Sandefjord xG
61%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 3 July 2022 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 4 - 3 Sandefjord.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 40% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 35% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Sandefjord?
Record (1 meetings): Sarpsborg 08 FF 1W | Draws 0 | Sandefjord 0W.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Sandefjord in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Sandefjord (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack at 1.12x the league average against Sandefjord's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sandefjord's attack versus Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
40%
2.48
24%
4.13
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
3.01
1.45
Sandefjord xG
2.48
40%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
23%
4.27
21%
4.77
Win to Nil
9%
10.58
7%
13.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.1 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.1 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.7 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.45 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sarpsborg 08 FF come into this having played 40 games, going 16W 6D 18L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sandefjord sit at 1.23 PPG from 40 outings (14W 7D 19L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sarpsborg 08 FF on 1.35 PPG, Sandefjord on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home form reads 8W 5D 7L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Sandefjord have taken 1.10 points per game from 20 outings (7W 1D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.35 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
Sandefjord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 16W 6D 18L in their last 40 games (1.35 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 14W 7D 19L in their last 40 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Sandefjord away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.45 PPG; Sandefjord away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Sarpsborg 08 FF have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Aug 2021, when Sarpsborg 08 FF won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's record when hosting Sandefjord specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1
Draws
3
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Sandefjord?
From 10 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 6, Sandefjord have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Sandefjord 0-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Sandefjord?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sarpsborg 08 FF see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 60%, Sandefjord 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 70% for Sandefjord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandefjord in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Sandefjord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's games and 50% of Sandefjord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Sandefjord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's matches and 70% of Sandefjord's.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Sandefjord tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Sandefjord in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sarpsborg 08 FF edge out Sandefjord 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sarpsborg 08 FF beat Sandefjord 4-3 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.56 xG and Sandefjord 1.45 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sandefjord outscored their 1.45 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.12 / defence 0.94 against Sandefjord attack 1.09 / defence 0.88, drawn from 41/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 40% | Draw 24% | Sandefjord 35%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 60%, Sandefjord 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Sandefjord's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.35 PPG, Sandefjord 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sarpsborg 08 FF win broke the near-deadlock. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sandefjord (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.