Ham-Kam 3-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ham-Kam and Sarpsborg 08 FF meet at Briskeby Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 26 June 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF's overall Eliteserien record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W D W L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.26 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.863 / defence 0.947 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.475 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.528 / away 1.477. Sarpsborg 08 FF have an above-average attack strength of 1.475 — the away xG of 2.06 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 10 Ham-Kam games / 40 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 23% | Draw 22% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 56%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 4.35 | Draw 4.55 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Sarpsborg 08 FF (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.32 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.26 / 2.06) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sarpsborg 08 FF are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.32 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jun 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 23% | Draw 22% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 63% | xG Ham-Kam 1.26 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.06 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 0.863 / def 0.947 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.475 / def 0.958 | league avg home 1.528 / away 1.477 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
2.06
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
63%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 26 June 2022 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Ham-Kam 3 - 2 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 23% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 56% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Ham-Kam and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ham-Kam and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Sarpsborg 08 FF away split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | CS 0.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ham-Kam's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. Flip it around — Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack (1.48x) against Ham-Kam's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 2.06.
These ratings are built from 10/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
23%
4.38
22%
4.65
56%
1.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
0 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
3.32
2.06
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
4.38
23%
Home win
4.65
22%
Draw
1.80
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
13%
7.86
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
3%
34.41
16%
6.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 7.4 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 2.06 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Pre-Season
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Sarpsborg 08 FF have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ham-Kam won 1-7 on 16 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ham-Kam have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sarpsborg 08 FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Ham-Kam
1
Draws
5
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 9 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 3, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-0 Ham-Kam.
Who has won more matches between Ham-Kam and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Ham-Kam defy the odds to beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ham-Kam beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 3-2 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.26 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.06 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Ham-Kam beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.86 / defence 0.95 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.48 / defence 0.96, drawn from 10/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 23% | Draw 22% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 56%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Ham-Kam win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.