Ham-Kam 1-0 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haugesund at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ham-Kam vs Haugesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Haugesund travel to Briskeby Arena to take on Ham-Kam. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 August 2022, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ham-Kam stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ham-Kam's home record at Briskeby Arena: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Haugesund — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Haugesund have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ham-Kam 1.10 PPG, Haugesund 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Ham-Kam, 0 for Haugesund and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Jul 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Ham-Kam in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Haugesund in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ham-Kam 74% and Haugesund 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 47% | Haugesund 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.06 xG and Haugesund 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.657 / defence 0.967 | Haugesund attack 0.997 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.694 / away 1.320. Ham-Kam's attack strength of 0.657 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 19 Ham-Kam games / 49 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 31% | Draw 28% | Haugesund 41%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | Haugesund 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Haugesund are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Haugesund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Ham-Kam 50% | Haugesund 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Aug 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 31% | Draw 28% | Haugesund 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Ham-Kam 1.06 / Haugesund 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 0.657 / def 0.967 | Haugesund attack 0.997 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.694 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Haugesund xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs Haugesund kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Haugesund kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 28 August 2022 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs Haugesund?
Ham-Kam 1 - 0 Haugesund.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Haugesund part of?
Ham-Kam vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 31% chance of winning, Haugesund a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Ham-Kam and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Haugesund?
Record (1 meetings): Ham-Kam 0W | Draws 1 | Haugesund 0W.
What form are Ham-Kam and Haugesund in?
Ham-Kam (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Haugesund (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ham-Kam's attack rating (0.66) and Haugesund's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Ham-Kam's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
31%
3.24
28%
3.58
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
2.33
1.27
Haugesund xG
3.24
31%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
9%
11.59
14%
7.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 12.3 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 1.27 for Haugesund, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ham-Kam's recent record stands at 3W 11D 5L from 19 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Haugesund, meanwhile, have gone 6W 4D 9L across 19 games — 1.16 PPG, with L-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ham-Kam on 1.05 PPG, Haugesund on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ham-Kam have managed 2W 4D 3L from 9 games — 1.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Haugesund's away record stands at 2W 2D 5L across 9 trips, a 0.89 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Ham-Kam are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.53 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ham-Kam have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games; Haugesund in 63%.
Last 19 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Blended
Haugesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ham-Kam and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Ham-Kam have gone 3W 11D 5L in their last 19 games (1.05 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 6W 4D 9L in their last 19 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ham-Kam at home or Haugesund away?
Ham-Kam's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ham-Kam at home: 1.11 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ham-Kam and Haugesund runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 23 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ham-Kam have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Nov 2025, when Ham-Kam won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ham-Kam's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Ham-Kam
2
Draws
2
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Haugesund?
From 8 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 4, Haugesund have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2025, when Ham-Kam 5-0 Haugesund.
Who has won more matches between Ham-Kam and Haugesund?
Ham-Kam have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Haugesund see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ham-Kam 44%, Haugesund 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Ham-Kam) and 56% (Haugesund).
On the defensive side: Ham-Kam keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Ham-Kam have failed to score in 44% of games; Haugesund in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ham-Kam play Haugesund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Ham-Kam's recent matches and 56% of Haugesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ham-Kam vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Ham-Kam's recent games and 56% of Haugesund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ham-Kam and Haugesund tend to score early?
Ham-Kam have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ham-Kam defy the odds to beat Haugesund 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ham-Kam beat Haugesund 1-0 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.06 xG and Haugesund 1.27 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Haugesund landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.66 / defence 0.97 against Haugesund attack 1.00 / defence 0.95, drawn from 19/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 31% | Draw 28% | Haugesund 41%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Ham-Kam win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 47%, Haugesund 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ham-Kam's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
Haugesund's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ham-Kam 1.05 PPG, Haugesund 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ham-Kam win broke the near-deadlock. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.