Haugesund 0-1 Molde – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Molde (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Haugesund face Molde.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 19 as Haugesund welcome Molde to Haugesund Sparebank Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 August 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Haugesund have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Haugesund Sparebank Arena this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Molde stand at 8W 2D 0L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Molde, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Molde have gone 8W 2D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Molde — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.60 vs 1.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Haugesund register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Molde in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Molde have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 3 encounters against Haugesund's 0 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Jul 2022, ended 0–1 with Molde winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Molde have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 4.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Haugesund trading profile (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Molde trading profile (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 60% versus Molde 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Haugesund 65% | Molde 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.56 xG and Molde 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 1.104 / defence 1.097 | Molde attack 1.140 / defence 0.838. League average goals — home 1.687 / away 1.356. Data: 48 Haugesund games / 48 Molde games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 36% | Draw 23% | Molde 41%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 2.78 | Draw 4.35 | Molde 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Molde at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Molde offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.26 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Haugesund 80% | Molde 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Molde | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Haugesund Sparebank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Aug 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 36% | Draw 23% | Molde 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG Haugesund 1.56 / Molde 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 1.104 / def 1.097 | Molde attack 1.140 / def 0.838 | league avg home 1.687 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: Molde (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Molde xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Molde kick off?
Haugesund vs Molde kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 21 August 2022 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Molde?
Haugesund 0 - 1 Molde.
Where is Haugesund vs Molde being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What competition is Haugesund vs Molde part of?
Haugesund vs Molde is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Molde?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 36% chance of winning, Molde a 41% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Molde?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Haugesund and Molde will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Molde have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Molde?
Record (3 meetings): Haugesund 0W | Draws 0 | Molde 3W.
What form are Haugesund and Molde in?
Haugesund (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Molde (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Haugesund's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Molde's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. The same calculation in reverse, Molde's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
36%
2.81
23%
4.32
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Haugesund xG
Total xG
3.26
1.70
Molde xG
2.81
36%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
18%
5.45
21%
4.76
Win to Nil
7%
15.33
9%
11.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.2 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.0 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Molde?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Molde expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.70 for Molde, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Molde?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Haugesund come into this having played 48 games, going 15W 12D 21L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-W. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Molde sit at 2.12 PPG from 48 outings (31W 9D 8L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Molde is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Molde carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.93 PPG clear of Haugesund — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Haugesund's home form reads 12W 4D 7L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.74 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.19 PPG overall — Haugesund are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Molde have taken 1.96 points per game from 23 outings (13W 6D 4L).
The Goals Picture
Haugesund are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Molde are on 2.25 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Haugesund have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Molde in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Blended
Molde
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Molde in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 15W 12D 21L in their last 48 games (1.19 PPG), while Molde have gone 31W 9D 8L in their last 48 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Molde away?
Molde's away record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.74 PPG; Molde away: 1.96 PPG.
Have Haugesund or Molde been keeping clean sheets recently?
Haugesund have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Molde in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Haugesund and Molde runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 9 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Molde have taken the last 10 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Oct 2024, when Molde won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haugesund's record when hosting Molde specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Haugesund
0
Draws
10
Molde
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Molde?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 0, Molde have won 10, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Molde last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2025, when Haugesund 0-2 Molde.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Molde?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 65%, Molde 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Haugesund and 56% for Molde. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Molde in 30%; Molde in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Molde away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Molde?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Haugesund's games and 56% of Molde's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haugesund vs Molde usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Haugesund's matches and 56% of Molde's.
Do Haugesund and Molde tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Molde in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Molde edge out Haugesund 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Molde beat Haugesund 0-1 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.56 xG and Molde 1.70 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Haugesund fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 1.10 / defence 1.10 against Molde attack 1.14 / defence 0.84, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 36% | Draw 23% | Molde 41%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 65%, Molde 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Molde's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.19. Form held, and they took the win. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward. Molde (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.