Aalesund 1-1 ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Aalesund at 43%, yet in-form ODD Ballklubb provide a compelling counter-argument — this Aalesund vs ODD Ballklubb fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 20 as Aalesund welcome ODD Ballklubb to Color Line Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 28 August 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Aalesund stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Aalesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aalesund's home record at Color Line Stadion: 3W 3D 3L from 9 Eliteserien appearances (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Aalesund are significantly better at Color Line Stadion than their overall form suggests.
ODD Ballklubb — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ODD Ballklubb's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. ODD Ballklubb's 1.40 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Aalesund's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Aalesund have won 1, ODD Ballklubb 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2022, ended 3–2 with Aalesund winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Aalesund trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
ODD Ballklubb trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aalesund 53% versus ODD Ballklubb 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aalesund 58% | ODD Ballklubb 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aalesund 1.29 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aalesund attack 0.709 / defence 1.030 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.744 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.694 / away 1.320. Aalesund's attack strength of 0.709 is below the league average — the 1.29 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 19 Aalesund games / 49 ODD Ballklubb games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aalesund 43% | Draw 28% | ODD Ballklubb 29%. Fair-value odds: Aalesund 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | ODD Ballklubb 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Aalesund at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form ODD Ballklubb (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aalesund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Aalesund 56% | ODD Ballklubb 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aalesund vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Color Line Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Aug 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aalesund 43% | Draw 28% | ODD Ballklubb 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Aalesund 1.29 / ODD Ballklubb 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Aalesund attack 0.709 / def 1.030 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.744 / def 1.076 | league avg home 1.694 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: Aalesund (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Aalesund xG
Expected Goals
1.01
ODD Ballklubb xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aalesund vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Aalesund vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 28 August 2022 at Color Line Stadion.
What was the final score in Aalesund vs ODD Ballklubb?
Aalesund 1 - 1 ODD Ballklubb.
Where is Aalesund vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at Color Line Stadion.
What competition is Aalesund vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Aalesund vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Aalesund vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Aalesund a 43% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Aalesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aalesund vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Aalesund and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will Aalesund vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and ODD Ballklubb?
Record (3 meetings): Aalesund 1W | Draws 0 | ODD Ballklubb 2W.
What form are Aalesund and ODD Ballklubb in?
Aalesund (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Aalesund's attack rating (0.71) and ODD Ballklubb's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, ODD Ballklubb's attack versus Aalesund's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aalesund Win
43%
2.33
28%
3.57
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Aalesund xG
Total xG
2.30
1.01
ODD Ballklubb xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
16%
6.41
8%
12.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 10.1 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.1 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aalesund vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Aalesund and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Aalesund and 1.01 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Aalesund vs ODD Ballklubb?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Aalesund come into this having played 19 games, going 5W 6D 8L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Aalesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, ODD Ballklubb sit at 1.21 PPG from 19 outings (7W 2D 10L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Aalesund on 1.11 PPG, ODD Ballklubb on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Aalesund's home form reads 3W 3D 3L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, ODD Ballklubb have taken 1.22 points per game from 9 outings (3W 2D 4L).
The Goals Picture
Aalesund are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; ODD Ballklubb are on 1.05 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Last 19 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aalesund
Blended
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aalesund and ODD Ballklubb in coming into this match?
Aalesund have gone 5W 6D 8L in their last 19 games (1.11 PPG), while ODD Ballklubb have gone 7W 2D 10L in their last 19 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aalesund at home or ODD Ballklubb away?
Aalesund's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aalesund at home: 1.33 PPG; ODD Ballklubb away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Aalesund and ODD Ballklubb runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 December 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: ODD Ballklubb have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Oct 2020, when ODD Ballklubb won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Aalesund's record when hosting ODD Ballklubb specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Aalesund
1
Draws
4
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and ODD Ballklubb?
From 6 meetings on record, Aalesund have won 1, ODD Ballklubb have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Aalesund and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 3 December 2023, when ODD Ballklubb 4-1 Aalesund.
Who has won more matches between Aalesund and ODD Ballklubb?
ODD Ballklubb have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Aalesund see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
ODD Ballklubb see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aalesund 56%, ODD Ballklubb 22% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Aalesund) and 44% (ODD Ballklubb).
On the defensive side: Aalesund keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; ODD Ballklubb in 33%; ODD Ballklubb in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aalesund home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aalesund play ODD Ballklubb?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Aalesund's recent matches and 22% of ODD Ballklubb's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aalesund vs ODD Ballklubb usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Aalesund's recent games and 44% of ODD Ballklubb's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Aalesund and ODD Ballklubb share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aalesund and ODD Ballklubb finished level at 1-1 at Color Line Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aalesund 1.29 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.01 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aalesund attack 0.71 / defence 1.03 against ODD Ballklubb attack 0.74 / defence 1.08, drawn from 19/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aalesund 43% | Draw 28% | ODD Ballklubb 29%, with Aalesund to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aalesund 58%, ODD Ballklubb 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aalesund's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Aalesund 1.11 PPG, ODD Ballklubb 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.