Lillestrom 1-1 Kristiansund BK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lillestrom at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lillestrom vs Kristiansund BK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 20 as Lillestrom welcome Kristiansund BK to Åråsen Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 28 August 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lillestrom — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Åråsen Stadion, Lillestrom have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Åråsen Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Lillestrom are significantly better at Åråsen Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kristiansund BK stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kristiansund BK's form when playing away from home: 1W 0D 9L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Lillestrom carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Lillestrom, 1 for Kristiansund BK and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 3 Jul 2022, ended 3–1 with Lillestrom winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Lillestrom in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Kristiansund BK in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lillestrom 56% versus Kristiansund BK 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lillestrom 56% | Kristiansund BK 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 1.80 xG and Kristiansund BK 0.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 0.982 / defence 0.634 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.673 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.694 / away 1.320. Lillestrom's defence rating of 0.634 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Lillestrom games / 48 Kristiansund BK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lillestrom 68% | Draw 22% | Kristiansund BK 11%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 1.47 | Draw 4.55 | Kristiansund BK 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Lillestrom (68%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lillestrom as the most likely outcome at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Lillestrom 20% | Kristiansund BK 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lillestrom vs Kristiansund BK | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Åråsen Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Aug 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lillestrom 68% | Draw 22% | Kristiansund BK 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 36% | xG Lillestrom 1.80 / Kristiansund BK 0.56 • Poisson strength factors: Lillestrom attack 0.982 / def 0.634 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.673 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.694 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: Lillestrom (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Lillestrom xG
Expected Goals
0.56
Kristiansund BK xG
36%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lillestrom vs Kristiansund BK kick off?
Lillestrom vs Kristiansund BK kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 28 August 2022 at Åråsen Stadion.
What was the final score in Lillestrom vs Kristiansund BK?
Lillestrom 1 - 1 Kristiansund BK.
Where is Lillestrom vs Kristiansund BK being played?
The match is being played at Åråsen Stadion.
What competition is Lillestrom vs Kristiansund BK part of?
Lillestrom vs Kristiansund BK is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Lillestrom vs Kristiansund BK?
Our statistical model gives Lillestrom a 68% chance of winning, Kristiansund BK a 11% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Lillestrom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs Kristiansund BK?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Lillestrom and Kristiansund BK will score (BTTS).
Will Lillestrom vs Kristiansund BK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Kristiansund BK?
Record (3 meetings): Lillestrom 1W | Draws 1 | Kristiansund BK 1W.
What form are Lillestrom and Kristiansund BK in?
Lillestrom (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Kristiansund BK (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lillestrom's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Kristiansund BK's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. The same calculation in reverse, Kristiansund BK's attack versus Lillestrom's defence, projects 0.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (15.3%), 1-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lillestrom Win
68%
1.48
22%
4.63
11%
9.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
15.3%
Home win
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Lillestrom xG
Total xG
2.37
0.56
Kristiansund BK xG
1.48
68%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
9.17
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.78
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
57%
1.76
16%
6.08
Win to Nil
38%
2.60
2%
55.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 9.5 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.3 | 8.6 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lillestrom vs Kristiansund BK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Lillestrom and Kristiansund BK expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Lillestrom and 0.56 for Kristiansund BK, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Lillestrom vs Kristiansund BK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lillestrom's recent record stands at 26W 11D 11L from 48 games, a 1.85 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Lillestrom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kristiansund BK, meanwhile, have gone 15W 7D 26L across 48 games — 1.08 PPG, with L-W-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Kristiansund BK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lillestrom by 0.77 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kristiansund BK heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lillestrom have managed 15W 4D 5L from 24 games — 2.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kristiansund BK's away record stands at 5W 2D 17L across 24 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lillestrom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lillestrom are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Kristiansund BK are on 1.17 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lillestrom
Blended
Kristiansund BK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lillestrom and Kristiansund BK in coming into this match?
Lillestrom have gone 26W 11D 11L in their last 48 games (1.85 PPG), while Kristiansund BK have gone 15W 7D 26L in their last 48 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lillestrom at home or Kristiansund BK away?
Lillestrom's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lillestrom at home: 2.04 PPG; Kristiansund BK away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Lillestrom or Kristiansund BK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lillestrom have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Kristiansund BK in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 20 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Kristiansund BK have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Lillestrom's record when hosting Kristiansund BK specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Lillestrom
2
Draws
4
Kristiansund BK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Kristiansund BK?
From 7 meetings on record, Lillestrom have won 1, Kristiansund BK have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lillestrom and Kristiansund BK last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2026, when Lillestrom 1-2 Kristiansund BK.
Who has won more matches between Lillestrom and Kristiansund BK?
Kristiansund BK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lillestrom see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lillestrom 38%, Kristiansund BK 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Lillestrom) and 62% (Kristiansund BK).
On the defensive side: Lillestrom keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Kristiansund BK in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lillestrom home games / Kristiansund BK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lillestrom play Kristiansund BK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Lillestrom's recent matches and 42% of Kristiansund BK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lillestrom vs Kristiansund BK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Lillestrom's recent games and 62% of Kristiansund BK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lillestrom and Kristiansund BK tend to score early?
Lillestrom have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Kristiansund BK in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lillestrom and Kristiansund BK share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Åråsen Stadion, Regular Season - 20, as Lillestrom and Kristiansund BK drew 1-1 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lillestrom 1.80 xG and Kristiansund BK 0.56 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Lillestrom fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lillestrom attack 0.98 / defence 0.63 against Kristiansund BK attack 0.67 / defence 1.09, drawn from 49/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lillestrom 68% | Draw 22% | Kristiansund BK 11%, with Lillestrom to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lillestrom 56%, Kristiansund BK 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lillestrom's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lillestrom arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.