Lillestrom 2-0 Aalesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lillestrom at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lillestrom vs Aalesund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Aalesund make the trip to Åråsen Stadion to face Lillestrom in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Thursday 28 April 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Lillestrom's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Åråsen Stadion, Lillestrom have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Åråsen Stadion.
Aalesund (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Aalesund haven't played a Eliteserien game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Aalesund have gone 1W 0D 9L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 3.20 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Lillestrom's 1.50 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Aalesund's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Lillestrom half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Aalesund half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lillestrom 63% and Aalesund 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Lillestrom 60% | Aalesund 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 1.85 xG and Aalesund 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 1.151 / defence 0.723 | Aalesund attack 0.993 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.531 / away 1.250. Lillestrom's defence rating of 0.723 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 34 Lillestrom games / 4 Aalesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lillestrom 60% | Draw 22% | Aalesund 18%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | Aalesund 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Lillestrom (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lillestrom at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate: Lillestrom 40% | Aalesund 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lillestrom vs Aalesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Åråsen Stadion • Kick-off: Thursday 28 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lillestrom 60% | Draw 22% | Aalesund 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 50% | xG Lillestrom 1.85 / Aalesund 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Lillestrom attack 1.151 / def 0.723 | Aalesund attack 0.993 / def 1.049 | league avg home 1.531 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Lillestrom (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Lillestrom xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Aalesund xG
50%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lillestrom vs Aalesund kick off?
Lillestrom vs Aalesund kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 28 April 2022 at Åråsen Stadion.
What was the final score in Lillestrom vs Aalesund?
Lillestrom 2 - 0 Aalesund.
Where is Lillestrom vs Aalesund being played?
The match is being played at Åråsen Stadion.
What competition is Lillestrom vs Aalesund part of?
Lillestrom vs Aalesund is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Lillestrom vs Aalesund?
Our statistical model gives Lillestrom a 60% chance of winning, Aalesund a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Lillestrom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs Aalesund?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Lillestrom and Aalesund will score (BTTS).
Will Lillestrom vs Aalesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Aalesund?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lillestrom and Aalesund in?
Lillestrom (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. Aalesund (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lillestrom's attack at 1.15x the league average against Aalesund's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.85 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Aalesund's attack (0.99x) against Lillestrom's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 34/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lillestrom Win
60%
1.67
22%
4.47
18%
5.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Lillestrom xG
Total xG
2.75
0.90
Aalesund xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
5.61
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
16%
6.35
Win to Nil
24%
4.10
3%
35.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 10.7 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lillestrom vs Aalesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Lillestrom and Aalesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Lillestrom and 0.90 for Aalesund, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Lillestrom vs Aalesund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lillestrom come into this having played 30 games, going 14W 7D 9L for 1.63 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-W.
On the other side, Aalesund sit at 0.37 PPG from 30 outings (2W 5D 23L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. Aalesund haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Lillestrom carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.26 PPG clear of Aalesund — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Lillestrom's home form reads 8W 3D 4L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Aalesund have taken 0.33 points per game from 15 outings (1W 2D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lillestrom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lillestrom are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Aalesund are on 1.00 scored and 2.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lillestrom have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Aalesund in 67%.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lillestrom
Current Season
Aalesund
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lillestrom and Aalesund in coming into this match?
Lillestrom have gone 14W 7D 9L in their last 30 games (1.63 PPG), while Aalesund have gone 2W 5D 23L in their last 30 (0.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lillestrom at home or Aalesund away?
Lillestrom's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lillestrom at home: 1.80 PPG; Aalesund away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lillestrom won 5-1 on 19 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lillestrom have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Aalesund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Lillestrom
1
Draws
1
Aalesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Aalesund?
From 5 meetings on record, Lillestrom have won 3, Aalesund have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lillestrom and Aalesund last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Aalesund 1-3 Lillestrom.
Who has won more matches between Lillestrom and Aalesund?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Aalesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lillestrom 47%, Aalesund 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 47% for Lillestrom and 73% for Aalesund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lillestrom keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Aalesund in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lillestrom home games / Aalesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lillestrom play Aalesund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Lillestrom's recent matches and 53% of Aalesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lillestrom vs Aalesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Lillestrom's matches and 73% of Aalesund's.
Do Lillestrom and Aalesund tend to score early?
Lillestrom have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Aalesund in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lillestrom cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Aalesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lillestrom beat Aalesund 2-0 at Åråsen Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lillestrom 1.85 xG and Aalesund 0.90 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Aalesund landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lillestrom attack 1.15 / defence 0.72 against Aalesund attack 0.99 / defence 1.05, drawn from 34/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lillestrom 60% | Draw 22% | Aalesund 18%, with Lillestrom to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lillestrom 60%, Aalesund 77%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lillestrom's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Aalesund's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Lillestrom arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 0.37. Form held, and they took the win. Lillestrom (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line. Aalesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 2 against a 3.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.