Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stromsgodset at 65% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
ODD Ballklubb make the trip to Marienlyst Stadion to face Stromsgodset in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 August 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Stromsgodset have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stromsgodset's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Marienlyst Stadion this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Stromsgodset are significantly better at Marienlyst Stadion than their overall form suggests.
ODD Ballklubb's overall Eliteserien record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, ODD Ballklubb have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, ODD Ballklubb are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Stromsgodset have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, ODD Ballklubb in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Stromsgodset, who have won 3 of the last 3 meetings against ODD Ballklubb — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Jul 2021, ended 3–0 with Stromsgodset winning.
The historical record gives Stromsgodset a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Stromsgodset goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
ODD Ballklubb goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Stromsgodset 62% and ODD Ballklubb 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stromsgodset 64% | ODD Ballklubb 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 2.19 xG and ODD Ballklubb 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 1.103 / defence 0.797 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.885 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.819 / away 1.238. Stromsgodset's defence rating of 0.797 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Stromsgodset games / 45 ODD Ballklubb games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 65% | Draw 23% | ODD Ballklubb 12%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 1.54 | Draw 4.35 | ODD Ballklubb 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Stromsgodset (65%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Stromsgodset dominate the H2H record, yet ODD Ballklubb are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Stromsgodset as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form ODD Ballklubb (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stromsgodset 70% | ODD Ballklubb 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 65% | Draw 23% | ODD Ballklubb 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 54% | xG Stromsgodset 2.19 / ODD Ballklubb 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 1.103 / def 0.797 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.885 / def 1.090 | league avg home 1.819 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Stromsgodset (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
0.87
ODD Ballklubb xG
54%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at Marienlyst Stadion.
Where is Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 65% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 12% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Stromsgodset the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Stromsgodset and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and ODD Ballklubb?
Record (3 meetings): Stromsgodset 3W | Draws 0 | ODD Ballklubb 0W.
What form are Stromsgodset and ODD Ballklubb in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Stromsgodset's attack at 1.10x the league average against ODD Ballklubb's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 2.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — ODD Ballklubb's attack (0.89x) against Stromsgodset's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
65%
1.53
23%
4.37
12%
8.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
3.06
0.87
ODD Ballklubb xG
1.53
65%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
8.51
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
11%
8.91
Win to Nil
27%
3.67
1%
75.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.2 | 9.0 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.2 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 0.87 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Stromsgodset's recent record stands at 12W 14D 19L from 45 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
ODD Ballklubb, meanwhile, have gone 19W 8D 18L across 45 games — 1.44 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Stromsgodset against 1.44 for ODD Ballklubb. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Stromsgodset have managed 8W 8D 6L from 22 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
ODD Ballklubb's away record stands at 7W 4D 11L across 22 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; ODD Ballklubb are on 1.69 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stromsgodset have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Blended
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stromsgodset and ODD Ballklubb in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 12W 14D 19L in their last 45 games (1.11 PPG), while ODD Ballklubb have gone 19W 8D 18L in their last 45 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or ODD Ballklubb away?
Stromsgodset's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.45 PPG; ODD Ballklubb away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 July 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: ODD Ballklubb won 5-1 on 6 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stromsgodset have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against ODD Ballklubb — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Stromsgodset
3
Draws
2
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and ODD Ballklubb?
From 10 meetings on record, Stromsgodset have won 5, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 28 July 2024, when ODD Ballklubb 2-0 Stromsgodset.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and ODD Ballklubb?
Stromsgodset have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stromsgodset 64%, ODD Ballklubb 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Stromsgodset and 59% for ODD Ballklubb. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: ODD Ballklubb in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stromsgodset play ODD Ballklubb?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Stromsgodset's games and 50% of ODD Ballklubb's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Stromsgodset's matches and 59% of ODD Ballklubb's.
Do Stromsgodset and ODD Ballklubb tend to score early?
Stromsgodset have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, ODD Ballklubb in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Stromsgodset's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stromsgodset and ODD Ballklubb finished level at 0-0 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 2.19 xG and ODD Ballklubb 0.87 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Stromsgodset fell 2.2 short of their projected output. ODD Ballklubb landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 1.10 / defence 0.80 against ODD Ballklubb attack 0.89 / defence 1.09, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 65% | Draw 23% | ODD Ballklubb 12%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 64%, ODD Ballklubb 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stromsgodset 1.11 PPG, ODD Ballklubb 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.