Ham-Kam 2-2 Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lillestrom at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ham-Kam vs Lillestrom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ham-Kam and Lillestrom meet at Briskeby Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Lillestrom have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D L W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Lillestrom away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.56 xG and Lillestrom 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Lillestrom attack 1.093 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.767 / away 1.277. Data: 0 Ham-Kam games / 30 Lillestrom games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 35% | Draw 29% | Lillestrom 37%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | Lillestrom 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lillestrom at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lillestrom if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.16 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 35% | Draw 29% | Lillestrom 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 66% | xG Ham-Kam 1.56 / Lillestrom 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Lillestrom attack 1.093 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.767 / away 1.277 • Poisson stance: Lillestrom (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Lillestrom xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs Lillestrom kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Lillestrom kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs Lillestrom?
Ham-Kam 2 - 2 Lillestrom.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Lillestrom part of?
Ham-Kam vs Lillestrom is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 35% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Lillestrom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Ham-Kam and Lillestrom will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Lillestrom?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ham-Kam and Lillestrom in?
Lillestrom (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. Lillestrom away split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 2.00 / GA 1.90 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ham-Kam's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Lillestrom's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. Flip it around — Lillestrom's attack (1.09x) against Ham-Kam's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.60.
These ratings are built from 0/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lillestrom Win
35%
2.88
29%
3.50
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
3.16
1.60
Lillestrom xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.91
Clean Sheet
20%
4.97
21%
4.76
Win to Nil
7%
14.30
8%
12.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.8 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.6 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.2 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 1.60 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs Lillestrom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Pre-Season
Lillestrom
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 25 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Ham-Kam have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ham-Kam won 5-0 on 21 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ham-Kam have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Lillestrom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Ham-Kam
3
Draws
2
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Lillestrom?
From 7 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 2, Lillestrom have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and Lillestrom last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when Ham-Kam 2-0 Lillestrom.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Ham-Kam and Lillestrom share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 1, as Ham-Kam and Lillestrom drew 2-2 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.56 xG and Lillestrom 1.60 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Lillestrom attack 1.09 / defence 1.04, drawn from 0/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 35% | Draw 29% | Lillestrom 37%, with Lillestrom to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.