Waalwijk 2-3 Ajax – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 38%, yet the head-to-head data favours Ajax — this Waalwijk vs Ajax fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Ajax travel to Mandemakers Stadion to take on Waalwijk in Eredivisie (matchday 7). The game is scheduled for Wednesday 6 December 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Waalwijk have gone 4W 1D 5L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Waalwijk have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Ajax stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Ajax away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Waalwijk 1.30 PPG, Ajax 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Waalwijk's games and 80% of Ajax's (from Waalwijk's last 10 home games and Ajax's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
Despite the home advantage, Ajax have the better record in our head-to-head data — 4 wins from 4 H2H matches against 0 for Waalwijk.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.8 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 12 Feb 2023, ended Waalwijk 1–3 Ajax — a Ajax win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Ajax have won 4 of 4 H2H matches, and at 4.8 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Waalwijk in-play tendencies (last 47 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Ajax in-play tendencies (last 47 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Waalwijk 55% and Ajax 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Waalwijk 66% | Ajax 74%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Waalwijk surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Ajax have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.77 xG and Ajax 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 0.842 / defence 1.042 | Ajax attack 1.093 / defence 1.264. League average goals — home 1.665 / away 1.503. Ajax's defence rating of 1.264 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Waalwijk's projected output up. Data: built from Waalwijk's last 47 games and Ajax's last 47.
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 38% | Draw 26% | Ajax 36%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 2.60 | Draw 3.89 | Ajax 2.79. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS Yes probability 70% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% — both xG figures (1.77 / 1.71) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Waalwijk as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Waalwijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.48 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Waalwijk's last 10 home games and Ajax's last 10 away games) averaging 3.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Waalwijk 60% (last 10 home games) | Ajax 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Ajax | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 7 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 6 December 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 38% | Draw 26% | Ajax 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% (Under 32%) | BTTS Yes 70% (No 30%) | xG Waalwijk 1.77 / Ajax 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 0.842 / def 1.042 | Ajax attack 1.093 / def 1.264 | league avg home 1.665 / away 1.503 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Ajax xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Waalwijk vs Ajax FAQs
What time does Waalwijk vs Ajax kick off?
Waalwijk vs Ajax kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Wednesday 6 December 2023 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs Ajax?
Waalwijk 2 - 3 Ajax.
Where is Waalwijk vs Ajax being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Ajax part of?
Waalwijk vs Ajax is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 7) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Ajax?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 38% chance of winning, Ajax a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Ajax?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Waalwijk and Ajax will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Waalwijk vs Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Waalwijk's attack rating (0.84) and Ajax's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ajax's attack versus Waalwijk's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Waalwijk's last 47 games and Ajax's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
38%
2.60
26%
3.89
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
3.48
1.71
Ajax xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.30
Clean Sheet
18%
5.53
17%
5.89
Win to Nil
7%
14.40
6%
16.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 9.3 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.3 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Waalwijk vs Ajax Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.71 for Ajax, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Ajax?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 47 outings, Waalwijk have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 15W 9D 23L record — L-L-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Ajax's form line: 25W 12D 10L from 47 games, 1.85 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W.
Put side by side, Ajax are the form team by 0.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Waalwijk.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Waalwijk have posted 1.54 PPG from their last 24 home games (11W 4D 9L).
On the road, Ajax have gone 11W 7D 6L from their last 24 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Waalwijk are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Ajax are on 2.43 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ajax in 66%.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Blended
Ajax
Blended
Waalwijk (Home) vs Ajax (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Waalwijk
Blended
Ajax
Blended
❓ Waalwijk vs Ajax Form FAQs
What form are Waalwijk and Ajax in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 15W 9D 23L in their last 47 games (1.15 PPG), while Ajax have gone 25W 12D 10L in their last 47 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Ajax away?
Ajax's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.54 PPG; Ajax away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2021. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent in our data was on 11 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ajax have won each of the latest 8 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Nov 2021, when Ajax won Waalwijk 0-5 Ajax.
Waalwijk's record when hosting Ajax specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Waalwijk
0
Draws
8
Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Waalwijk vs Ajax H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Ajax?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Waalwijk have won 0, Ajax have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Ajax last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 January 2025: Ajax 2-1 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and Ajax?
Ajax have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Waalwijk at 62%, Ajax at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Waalwijk and 75% for Ajax. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Waalwijk vs Ajax Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Waalwijk and Ajax matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Waalwijk's games and 75% of Ajax's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Waalwijk and Ajax matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Waalwijk's matches and 75% of Ajax's.
Do Waalwijk and Ajax matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Waalwijk's recent matches and 83% of Ajax's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ajax defy the odds to beat Waalwijk 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajax beat Waalwijk 2-3 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.77 xG and Ajax 1.71 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Ajax outscored their 1.71 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.84 / defence 1.04 against Ajax attack 1.09 / defence 1.26, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 38% | Draw 26% | Ajax 36%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Ajax win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 66%, Ajax 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (47 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Ajax's trading profile (47 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajax arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.15. Form held, and they took the win. Waalwijk (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ajax (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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