Heracles 2-1 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Heracles at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Heracles vs PEC Zwolle fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 7 as Heracles welcome PEC Zwolle to Erve Asito. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 October 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Heracles have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Heracles have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Erve Asito, Heracles have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Erve Asito. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Heracles are significantly better at Erve Asito than their overall form suggests.
PEC Zwolle — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. PEC Zwolle have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PEC Zwolle's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Heracles at 2.00 PPG versus PEC Zwolle's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Heracles, 3 for PEC Zwolle and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2023, ended 0–3 with PEC Zwolle winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Heracles in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
PEC Zwolle in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heracles 57% versus PEC Zwolle 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Heracles 75% | PEC Zwolle 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 1.90 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 0.980 / defence 1.215 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.876 / defence 1.199. League average goals — home 1.616 / away 1.477. Data: 6 Heracles games / 6 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 45% | Draw 24% | PEC Zwolle 31%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 2.22 | Draw 4.17 | PEC Zwolle 3.23. Heracles hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.90 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Heracles are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Heracles offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.47 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Heracles 50% | PEC Zwolle 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Erve Asito • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Oct 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 45% | Draw 24% | PEC Zwolle 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 68% | xG Heracles 1.90 / PEC Zwolle 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 0.980 / def 1.215 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.876 / def 1.199 | league avg home 1.616 / away 1.477 • Poisson stance: Heracles (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
1.57
PEC Zwolle xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
Heracles vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 1 October 2023 at Erve Asito.
What was the final score in Heracles vs PEC Zwolle?
Heracles 2 - 1 PEC Zwolle.
Where is Heracles vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at Erve Asito.
What competition is Heracles vs PEC Zwolle part of?
Heracles vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 45% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 31% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Heracles and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and PEC Zwolle?
Record (4 meetings): Heracles 1W | Draws 0 | PEC Zwolle 3W.
What form are Heracles and PEC Zwolle in?
Heracles (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Heracles's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against PEC Zwolle's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.90. The same calculation in reverse, PEC Zwolle's attack versus Heracles's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
45%
2.24
24%
4.13
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Heracles xG
Total xG
3.47
1.57
PEC Zwolle xG
2.24
45%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.17
Clean Sheet
21%
4.82
15%
6.67
Win to Nil
9%
10.82
5%
21.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 9.3 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Heracles and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Heracles and 1.57 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs PEC Zwolle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Heracles's recent record stands at 29W 6D 9L from 44 games, a 2.11 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Heracles, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
PEC Zwolle, meanwhile, have gone 29W 5D 10L across 44 games — 2.09 PPG, with L-W-W-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Heracles on 2.11 PPG, PEC Zwolle on 2.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Heracles have managed 16W 3D 2L from 21 games — 2.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PEC Zwolle's away record stands at 13W 2D 6L across 21 trips, a 1.95 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Heracles come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Heracles are averaging 2.57 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 2.39 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
Defensively: Heracles have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; PEC Zwolle in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Early Season
PEC Zwolle
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 29W 6D 9L in their last 44 games (2.11 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 29W 5D 10L in their last 44 (2.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or PEC Zwolle away?
Heracles's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 2.43 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 1.95 PPG.
Have Heracles or PEC Zwolle been keeping clean sheets recently?
Heracles have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, PEC Zwolle in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Nov 2025, when Heracles won 8-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Heracles's record when hosting PEC Zwolle specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Heracles
0
Draws
6
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and PEC Zwolle?
From 10 meetings on record, Heracles have won 4, PEC Zwolle have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when PEC Zwolle 1-0 Heracles.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and PEC Zwolle?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heracles 57%, PEC Zwolle 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Heracles and 76% for PEC Zwolle. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; PEC Zwolle in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play PEC Zwolle?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Heracles's games and 57% of PEC Zwolle's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Heracles vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Heracles's matches and 76% of PEC Zwolle's.
Do Heracles and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 95% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Heracles edge out PEC Zwolle 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heracles beat PEC Zwolle 2-1 at Erve Asito, Regular Season - 7, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.90 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.57 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 0.98 / defence 1.22 against PEC Zwolle attack 0.88 / defence 1.20, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 45% | Draw 24% | PEC Zwolle 31%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 75%, PEC Zwolle 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Heracles 2.11 PPG, PEC Zwolle 2.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Heracles win broke the near-deadlock. Heracles (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.10 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.