Heracles 2-1 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Heracles at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Heracles face PEC Zwolle.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

Heracles welcome PEC Zwolle to Erve Asito in Eredivisie (matchday 7). Kick-off is Sunday 1 October 2023 at 14:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Heracles have gone 6W 2D 2L — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Heracles have gone 8W 1D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Heracles are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

PEC Zwolle — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

PEC Zwolle's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Heracles at 2.00 PPG versus PEC Zwolle's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Heracles have won 1, PEC Zwolle 3, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 15 Jan 2023, ended Heracles 0–3 PEC Zwolle — a PEC Zwolle win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Heracles in-play tendencies (last 44 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 95% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.

PEC Zwolle in-play tendencies (last 44 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heracles 57% versus PEC Zwolle 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Heracles 75% | PEC Zwolle 68%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 1.90 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 0.980 / defence 1.215 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.876 / defence 1.199. League average goals — home 1.616 / away 1.477. Heracles's defence rating of 1.215 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing PEC Zwolle's projected output up. Data: built from Heracles's last 6 games and PEC Zwolle's last 6.

Result probabilities: Heracles 45% | Draw 24% | PEC Zwolle 31%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 2.24 | Draw 4.13 | PEC Zwolle 3.20. Heracles hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 68% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% — both xG figures (1.90 / 1.57) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Heracles are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Heracles offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.47 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Heracles's last 10 home games and PEC Zwolle's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Heracles 50% (last 10 home games) | PEC Zwolle 90% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights