NEC Nijmegen 1-2 Ajax – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NEC Nijmegen at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as NEC Nijmegen face Ajax.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
NEC Nijmegen welcome Ajax to Goffertstadion in Eredivisie (matchday 14). Kick-off is Sunday 3 December 2023 at 13:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, NEC Nijmegen stand at 2W 6D 2L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
NEC Nijmegen at home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ajax — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Ajax's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (NEC Nijmegen) versus 1.10 (Ajax). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from NEC Nijmegen's last 10 home games and Ajax's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for NEC Nijmegen, 2 for Ajax and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.3 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 5 Mar 2023, ended NEC Nijmegen 0–1 Ajax — a Ajax win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
NEC Nijmegen in-play and half-time data (last 46 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Ajax in-play and half-time data (last 46 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 63%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NEC Nijmegen 56% and Ajax 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NEC Nijmegen 48% | Ajax 74%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: NEC Nijmegen surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Ajax have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Ajax surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while NEC Nijmegen recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEC Nijmegen 2.36 xG and Ajax 2.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.028 / defence 1.243 | Ajax attack 1.095 / defence 1.351. League average goals — home 1.701 / away 1.477. Ajax's defence rating of 1.351 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing NEC Nijmegen's projected output up. NEC Nijmegen's defence rating of 1.243 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Ajax's projected output up. Data: built from NEC Nijmegen's last 46 games and Ajax's last 46.
Result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 46% | Draw 21% | Ajax 33%. Fair-value odds: NEC Nijmegen 2.18 | Draw 4.68 | Ajax 3.05. NEC Nijmegen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 81% | BTTS Yes probability 79% | Total xG 4.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 81% — a total xG of 4.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 79% — both xG figures (2.36 / 2.01) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is NEC Nijmegen at 46% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 4.37 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 81% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (NEC Nijmegen's last 10 home games and Ajax's last 10 away games) averaging 3.9 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 79%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: NEC Nijmegen 70% (last 10 home games) | Ajax 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 14 | Venue: Goffertstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 3 December 2023 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 46% | Draw 21% | Ajax 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 81% (Under 19%) | BTTS Yes 79% (No 21%) | xG NEC Nijmegen 2.36 / Ajax 2.01 • Poisson strength factors: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.028 / def 1.243 | Ajax attack 1.095 / def 1.351 | league avg home 1.701 / away 1.477 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.36
NEC Nijmegen xG
Expected Goals
2.01
Ajax xG
79%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
81%
Over 2.5
64%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax FAQs
What time does NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax kick off?
NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 3 December 2023 at Goffertstadion.
What was the final score in NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax?
NEC Nijmegen 1 - 2 Ajax.
Where is NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax being played?
The match is being played at Goffertstadion.
What competition is NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax part of?
NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 14) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax?
Our statistical model gives NEC Nijmegen a 46% chance of winning, Ajax a 33% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax?
Our model estimates a 79% probability that both NEC Nijmegen and Ajax will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 81%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from NEC Nijmegen's attack rating (1.03) and Ajax's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 2.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ajax's attack versus NEC Nijmegen's defence, projects 2.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from NEC Nijmegen's last 46 games and Ajax's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 7.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.1%), 1-1 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
46%
2.18
21%
4.68
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
1 – 1
6.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.36
NEC Nijmegen xG
Total xG
4.37
2.01
Ajax xG
2.18
46%
Home win
4.68
21%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
81%
Over 2.5
1.23
19%
Under 2.5
5.26
64%
Over 3.5
1.56
36%
Under 3.5
2.78
44%
Over 4.5
2.27
56%
Under 4.5
1.79
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
79%
BTTS Yes
1.26
21%
BTTS No
4.86
Clean Sheet
13%
7.46
9%
10.62
Win to Nil
6%
16.30
3%
32.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 2-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.1%.
How many goals are NEC Nijmegen and Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 2.36 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 2.01 for Ajax, a combined total of 4.37.
How confident is the prediction model for NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
NEC Nijmegen come into this having played 46 games, going 10W 21D 15L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-D-D.
On the other side, Ajax sit at 1.83 PPG from 46 outings (24W 12D 10L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-W across their last five.
Ajax carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of NEC Nijmegen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
NEC Nijmegen's home form reads 5W 12D 6L across their last 23 home games, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Ajax have taken 1.61 points per game from their last 23 away games (10W 7D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajax come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
NEC Nijmegen are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Ajax are on 2.43 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ajax in 65%.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
Ajax
Blended
NEC Nijmegen (Home) vs Ajax (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
Ajax
Blended
❓ NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax Form FAQs
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Ajax in coming into this match?
NEC Nijmegen have gone 10W 21D 15L in their last 46 games (1.11 PPG), while Ajax have gone 24W 12D 10L in their last 46 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEC Nijmegen at home or Ajax away?
Ajax's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEC Nijmegen at home: 1.17 PPG; Ajax away: 1.61 PPG.
Have NEC Nijmegen or Ajax been keeping clean sheets recently?
NEC Nijmegen have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Ajax in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2022. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 May 2025, when NEC Nijmegen won Ajax 0-3 NEC Nijmegen.
NEC Nijmegen's record when hosting Ajax specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
NEC Nijmegen
5
Draws
4
Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Ajax?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, NEC Nijmegen have won 1, Ajax have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did NEC Nijmegen and Ajax last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: Ajax 1-1 NEC Nijmegen.
Who has won more matches between NEC Nijmegen and Ajax?
Ajax have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — NEC Nijmegen at 78%, Ajax at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for NEC Nijmegen and 74% for Ajax. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 61% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEC Nijmegen home games / Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ NEC Nijmegen vs Ajax Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in NEC Nijmegen and Ajax matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of NEC Nijmegen's games and 74% of Ajax's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are NEC Nijmegen and Ajax matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of NEC Nijmegen's matches and 74% of Ajax's.
Do NEC Nijmegen and Ajax matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of NEC Nijmegen's recent matches and 87% of Ajax's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ajax defy the odds to beat NEC Nijmegen 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajax beat NEC Nijmegen 1-2 at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 2.36 xG and Ajax 2.01 xG, a combined 4.37. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. NEC Nijmegen fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 1.03 / defence 1.24 against Ajax attack 1.09 / defence 1.35, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 46% | Draw 21% | Ajax 33%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Ajax win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 81%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 64% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 79% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 48%, Ajax 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Ajax's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajax arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.11. Form held, and they took the win. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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