PSV Eindhoven 3-1 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PSV Eindhoven at 81% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PSV Eindhoven vs FC Volendam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
PSV Eindhoven host FC Volendam at Philips Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 September 2023 at 17:45 UTC.
Form Guide
PSV Eindhoven — All Games: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 2.80 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. PSV Eindhoven have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Philips Stadion, PSV Eindhoven have gone 9W 1D 0L this season (10 games, 2.80 PPG). They are averaging 3.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Philips Stadion.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Volendam stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC Volendam have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, PSV Eindhoven have the edge — a 1.80 PPG advantage (2.80 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for PSV Eindhoven, 0 for FC Volendam and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2023, ended 3–2 with PSV Eindhoven winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
PSV Eindhoven in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
FC Volendam in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PSV Eindhoven 51% versus FC Volendam 64%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (PSV Eindhoven 72% | FC Volendam 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PSV Eindhoven 3.04 xG and FC Volendam 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PSV Eindhoven attack 1.384 / defence 0.645 | FC Volendam attack 0.862 / defence 1.317. League average goals — home 1.666 / away 1.452. PSV Eindhoven carry an above-average attack strength of 1.384 — their λ of 3.04 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. FC Volendam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.317 — this is suppressing PSV Eindhoven's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. PSV Eindhoven's defence rating of 0.645 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 PSV Eindhoven games / 39 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PSV Eindhoven 81% | Draw 13% | FC Volendam 6%. Fair-value odds: PSV Eindhoven 1.23 | Draw 7.69 | FC Volendam 16.67. The model has a clear lean to PSV Eindhoven (81%) — a 75pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.85. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.85 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PSV Eindhoven at 81% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 74% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: PSV Eindhoven 40% | FC Volendam 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PSV Eindhoven vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Philips Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Sep 2023, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PSV Eindhoven 81% | Draw 13% | FC Volendam 6% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 54% | xG PSV Eindhoven 3.04 / FC Volendam 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: PSV Eindhoven attack 1.384 / def 0.645 | FC Volendam attack 0.862 / def 1.317 | league avg home 1.666 / away 1.452 • Poisson stance: PSV Eindhoven (81%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.04
PSV Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
0.81
FC Volendam xG
54%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PSV Eindhoven vs FC Volendam kick off?
PSV Eindhoven vs FC Volendam kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 30 September 2023 at Philips Stadion.
What was the final score in PSV Eindhoven vs FC Volendam?
PSV Eindhoven 3 - 1 FC Volendam.
Where is PSV Eindhoven vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at Philips Stadion.
What competition is PSV Eindhoven vs FC Volendam part of?
PSV Eindhoven vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PSV Eindhoven vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives PSV Eindhoven a 81% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 6% chance, and a 13% chance of a draw — making PSV Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in PSV Eindhoven vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both PSV Eindhoven and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will PSV Eindhoven vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between PSV Eindhoven and FC Volendam?
Record (2 meetings): PSV Eindhoven 2W | Draws 0 | FC Volendam 0W.
What form are PSV Eindhoven and FC Volendam in?
PSV Eindhoven (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. FC Volendam (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates PSV Eindhoven's attack at 1.38x the league average against FC Volendam's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 3.04 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Volendam's attack versus PSV Eindhoven's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 3-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (9.9%), 3-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PSV Eindhoven Win
81%
1.24
13%
7.49
6%
16.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
3 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.04
PSV Eindhoven xG
Total xG
3.85
0.81
FC Volendam xG
1.24
81%
Home win
7.49
13%
Draw
16.86
6%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
5%
20.86
Win to Nil
36%
2.78
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 10.0 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 7.6 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PSV Eindhoven vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are PSV Eindhoven and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 3.04 expected goals for PSV Eindhoven and 0.81 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 3.85.
How confident is the prediction model for PSV Eindhoven vs FC Volendam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 81%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 39 outings, PSV Eindhoven have picked up 2.31 PPG on a 28W 6D 5L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for PSV Eindhoven, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Volendam's form line: 10W 7D 22L from 39 games, 0.95 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for FC Volendam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, PSV Eindhoven are the form team by 1.36 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Volendam.
Venue Form
On home soil, PSV Eindhoven have posted 2.63 PPG from 19 outings (16W 2D 1L).
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 1W 5D 13L from 19 away games — 0.42 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.95 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Volendam's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PSV Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
PSV Eindhoven are averaging 2.69 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.21 scored and 2.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam in 64%.
Defensively: PSV Eindhoven have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PSV Eindhoven
Early Season
FC Volendam
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PSV Eindhoven and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
PSV Eindhoven have gone 28W 6D 5L in their last 39 games (2.31 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 10W 7D 22L in their last 39 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PSV Eindhoven at home or FC Volendam away?
PSV Eindhoven's home record (2.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PSV Eindhoven at home: 2.63 PPG; FC Volendam away: 0.42 PPG.
Have PSV Eindhoven or FC Volendam been keeping clean sheets recently?
PSV Eindhoven have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, FC Volendam in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Aug 2022, when PSV Eindhoven won 7-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PSV Eindhoven's record when hosting FC Volendam specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
PSV Eindhoven
0
Draws
1
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PSV Eindhoven and FC Volendam?
From 6 meetings on record, PSV Eindhoven have won 5, FC Volendam have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PSV Eindhoven and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when FC Volendam 2-1 PSV Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between PSV Eindhoven and FC Volendam?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PSV Eindhoven 37%, FC Volendam 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for PSV Eindhoven and 68% for FC Volendam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PSV Eindhoven keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; FC Volendam in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PSV Eindhoven home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PSV Eindhoven play FC Volendam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of PSV Eindhoven's recent matches and 58% of FC Volendam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PSV Eindhoven vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of PSV Eindhoven's matches and 68% of FC Volendam's.
Do PSV Eindhoven and FC Volendam tend to score early?
PSV Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PSV Eindhoven cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FC Volendam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PSV Eindhoven beat FC Volendam 3-1 at Philips Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PSV Eindhoven 3.04 xG and FC Volendam 0.81 xG, a combined 3.85. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PSV Eindhoven attack 1.38 / defence 0.65 against FC Volendam attack 0.86 / defence 1.32, drawn from 40/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PSV Eindhoven 81% | Draw 13% | FC Volendam 6%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 81%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PSV Eindhoven 72%, FC Volendam 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Volendam's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.