Fortuna Sittard 1-0 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortuna Sittard at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortuna Sittard vs Waalwijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Fortuna Sittard Stadion plays host to Fortuna Sittard versus Waalwijk in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Sunday 10 December 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fortuna Sittard have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Sittard at Fortuna Sittard Stadion this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Fortuna Sittard are significantly better at Fortuna Sittard Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Waalwijk's overall Eredivisie record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Waalwijk have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Fortuna Sittard 0W, Waalwijk 2W, 2D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2023, ended 1–3 with Waalwijk winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Fortuna Sittard goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Waalwijk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Sittard 52% versus Waalwijk 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Fortuna Sittard 65% | Waalwijk 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Sittard 1.84 xG and Waalwijk 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.993 / defence 0.865 | Waalwijk attack 0.743 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.675 / away 1.531. Data: 48 Fortuna Sittard games / 48 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 55% | Draw 26% | Waalwijk 18%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Sittard 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | Waalwijk 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Fortuna Sittard (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fortuna Sittard as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Fortuna Sittard 50% | Waalwijk 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Sittard vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Fortuna Sittard Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Dec 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 55% | Draw 26% | Waalwijk 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Fortuna Sittard 1.84 / Waalwijk 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.993 / def 0.865 | Waalwijk attack 0.743 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.675 / away 1.531 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Sittard (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Fortuna Sittard xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Waalwijk xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Sittard vs Waalwijk kick off?
Fortuna Sittard vs Waalwijk kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 10 December 2023 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What was the final score in Fortuna Sittard vs Waalwijk?
Fortuna Sittard 1 - 0 Waalwijk.
Where is Fortuna Sittard vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What competition is Fortuna Sittard vs Waalwijk part of?
Fortuna Sittard vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Sittard vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Sittard a 55% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 18% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Sittard the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Sittard vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Fortuna Sittard and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Sittard vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and Waalwijk?
Record (4 meetings): Fortuna Sittard 0W | Draws 2 | Waalwijk 2W.
What form are Fortuna Sittard and Waalwijk in?
Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Waalwijk (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Fortuna Sittard's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Waalwijk's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.84. Flip it around — Waalwijk's attack (0.74x) against Fortuna Sittard's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Sittard Win
55%
1.80
26%
3.78
18%
5.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Fortuna Sittard xG
Total xG
2.82
0.98
Waalwijk xG
1.80
55%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
5.53
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
16%
6.28
Win to Nil
21%
4.82
3%
34.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 10.8 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Sittard vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Fortuna Sittard and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard and 0.98 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Sittard vs Waalwijk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fortuna Sittard come into this having played 48 games, going 14W 10D 24L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-W. The sample for Fortuna Sittard is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Waalwijk sit at 1.12 PPG from 48 outings (15W 9D 24L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Fortuna Sittard against 1.12 for Waalwijk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Fortuna Sittard's home form reads 9W 6D 8L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Waalwijk have taken 0.74 points per game from 23 outings (4W 5D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortuna Sittard come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fortuna Sittard are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.33 scored and 1.88 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
Waalwijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Sittard and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
Fortuna Sittard have gone 14W 10D 24L in their last 48 games (1.08 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 15W 9D 24L in their last 48 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Sittard at home or Waalwijk away?
Fortuna Sittard's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Sittard at home: 1.43 PPG; Waalwijk away: 0.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Fortuna Sittard go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fortuna Sittard have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Waalwijk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Fortuna Sittard
2
Draws
2
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and Waalwijk?
From 8 meetings on record, Fortuna Sittard have won 4, Waalwijk have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Sittard and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2025, when Waalwijk 1-2 Fortuna Sittard.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Sittard and Waalwijk?
Fortuna Sittard have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fortuna Sittard see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Sittard 44%, Waalwijk 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Fortuna Sittard) and 61% (Waalwijk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fortuna Sittard keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Fortuna Sittard have failed to score in 39% of games; Waalwijk in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Sittard home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Sittard play Waalwijk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Fortuna Sittard's recent matches and 48% of Waalwijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortuna Sittard vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Fortuna Sittard's matches and 61% of Waalwijk's.
Do Fortuna Sittard and Waalwijk tend to score early?
Fortuna Sittard have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fortuna Sittard edge out Waalwijk 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Sittard beat Waalwijk 1-0 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Sittard 1.84 xG and Waalwijk 0.98 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fortuna Sittard fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Waalwijk landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Sittard attack 0.99 / defence 0.86 against Waalwijk attack 0.74 / defence 1.10, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Sittard 55% | Draw 26% | Waalwijk 18%, with Fortuna Sittard to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Sittard 65%, Waalwijk 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Waalwijk's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortuna Sittard 1.08 PPG, Waalwijk 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortuna Sittard win broke the near-deadlock. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. Waalwijk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.