Utrecht 1-1 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Utrecht at 57% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Utrecht and PEC Zwolle meet at Stadion Galgenwaard in Eredivisie (matchday 24). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 13:30 UK time.
Current Form
Utrecht's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Utrecht have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
PEC Zwolle have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
PEC Zwolle away from home: 0W 4D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 3.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Utrecht against 1.30 for PEC Zwolle. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Utrecht's last 10 home games and PEC Zwolle's last 10 away games) — Utrecht have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, PEC Zwolle in 100%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Utrecht have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins, with PEC Zwolle managing 1 and 2 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.4 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 31 Aug 2025, ended Utrecht 2–0 PEC Zwolle — a Utrecht win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Utrecht and goals — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches and an average of 3.4 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Utrecht — key trading statistics (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
PEC Zwolle — key trading statistics (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Utrecht 65% and PEC Zwolle 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Utrecht 58% | PEC Zwolle 54%). Note also that PEC Zwolle surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Utrecht recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Utrecht 1.99 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Utrecht attack 0.825 / defence 0.832 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.997 / defence 1.482. League average goals — home 1.627 / away 1.401. PEC Zwolle's defence rating of 1.482 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Utrecht's projected output up. Data: built from Utrecht's last 57 games and PEC Zwolle's last 57.
Result probabilities: Utrecht 57% | Draw 22% | PEC Zwolle 22%. Fair-value odds: Utrecht 1.77 | Draw 4.63 | PEC Zwolle 4.57. The model has a clear lean to Utrecht (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Utrecht are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. The head-to-head data (Utrecht 4 wins from 7 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.15 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Utrecht's last 10 home games and PEC Zwolle's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Utrecht 60% (last 10 home games) | PEC Zwolle 100% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 24 | Venue: Stadion Galgenwaard • Kick-off: Sunday 22 February 2026 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Utrecht 57% | Draw 22% | PEC Zwolle 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Utrecht 1.99 / PEC Zwolle 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Utrecht attack 0.825 / def 0.832 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.997 / def 1.482 | league avg home 1.627 / away 1.401 • Poisson stance: Utrecht (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.16
PEC Zwolle xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle FAQs
What time does Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 22 February 2026 at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What was the final score in Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle?
Utrecht 1 - 1 PEC Zwolle.
Where is Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What competition is Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle part of?
Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 24) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives Utrecht a 57% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Utrecht and PEC Zwolle will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Utrecht's attack rating (0.82) and PEC Zwolle's defence rating (1.48), the model arrives at 1.99 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PEC Zwolle's attack (1.00x) against Utrecht's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from Utrecht's last 57 games and PEC Zwolle's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Utrecht Win
57%
1.77
22%
4.63
22%
4.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Utrecht xG
Total xG
3.15
1.16
PEC Zwolle xG
1.77
57%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
4.57
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
14%
7.31
Win to Nil
18%
5.66
3%
33.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 9.9 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Utrecht and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Utrecht and 1.16 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Utrecht come into this having played 57 games, going 26W 16D 15L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-W.
On the other side, PEC Zwolle sit at 1.18 PPG from 57 outings (17W 16D 24L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five.
Utrecht carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of PEC Zwolle — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Utrecht's home form reads 14W 5D 9L across their last 28 home games, a 1.68 PPG return.
Away from home, PEC Zwolle have taken 0.82 points per game from their last 28 away games (4W 11D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Utrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Utrecht are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 1.33 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Utrecht have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; PEC Zwolle in 61%.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Utrecht
Blended
PEC Zwolle
Blended
Utrecht (Home) vs PEC Zwolle (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Utrecht
Blended
PEC Zwolle
Blended
❓ Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle Form FAQs
What form are Utrecht and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
Utrecht have gone 26W 16D 15L in their last 57 games (1.65 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 17W 16D 24L in their last 57 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Utrecht at home or PEC Zwolle away?
Utrecht's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Utrecht at home: 1.68 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between Utrecht and PEC Zwolle, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was as recently as 24 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Utrecht won Utrecht 5-1 PEC Zwolle on 25 Sep 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Utrecht have gone 3W 2D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against PEC Zwolle — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Utrecht
4
Draws
1
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and PEC Zwolle?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Utrecht have won 4, PEC Zwolle have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Utrecht and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 October 2026: Utrecht 1-1 PEC Zwolle.
Who has won more matches between Utrecht and PEC Zwolle?
Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 57% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Utrecht 50%, PEC Zwolle 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Utrecht) and 64% (PEC Zwolle). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Utrecht home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Utrecht and PEC Zwolle matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Utrecht's games and 75% of PEC Zwolle's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Utrecht and PEC Zwolle matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Utrecht's matches and 64% of PEC Zwolle's.
Do Utrecht and PEC Zwolle matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Utrecht's recent matches and 82% of PEC Zwolle's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Utrecht and PEC Zwolle share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Galgenwaard, Regular Season - 24, as Utrecht and PEC Zwolle drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Utrecht 1.99 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.16 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Utrecht fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utrecht attack 0.82 / defence 0.83 against PEC Zwolle attack 1.00 / defence 1.48, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Utrecht 57% | Draw 22% | PEC Zwolle 22%, with Utrecht to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utrecht 58%, PEC Zwolle 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Utrecht's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Utrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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