PSV Eindhoven 3-1 Heerenveen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours PSV Eindhoven (63%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as PSV Eindhoven face Heerenveen.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Heerenveen travel to Philips Stadion to take on PSV Eindhoven. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 February 2026, 17:45 UTC.
Form Guide
PSV Eindhoven — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for PSV Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PSV Eindhoven's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Philips Stadion this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Heerenveen have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Heerenveen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heerenveen away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
On current form, PSV Eindhoven have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: PSV Eindhoven have dominated this rivalry, winning 6 of 9 past contests while Heerenveen have managed just 1 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2025, ended 2–0 with PSV Eindhoven winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both PSV Eindhoven and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
PSV Eindhoven in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
Heerenveen in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — PSV Eindhoven 68% and Heerenveen 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (PSV Eindhoven 84% | Heerenveen 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PSV Eindhoven 2.84 xG and Heerenveen 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PSV Eindhoven attack 1.581 / defence 1.020 | Heerenveen attack 1.105 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.634 / away 1.420. PSV Eindhoven carry an above-average attack strength of 1.581 — their λ of 2.84 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 57 PSV Eindhoven games / 57 Heerenveen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PSV Eindhoven 63% | Draw 17% | Heerenveen 20%. Fair-value odds: PSV Eindhoven 1.59 | Draw 5.88 | Heerenveen 5.00. The model has a clear lean to PSV Eindhoven (63%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 82% | BTTS probability 75% | Total xG 4.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 82% — a total xG of 4.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% reflects that both xG figures (2.84 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, PSV Eindhoven are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.44 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 82% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 75%. Form rates corroborate: PSV Eindhoven 70% | Heerenveen 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Philips Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Feb 2026, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PSV Eindhoven 63% | Draw 17% | Heerenveen 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 82% | BTTS 75% | xG PSV Eindhoven 2.84 / Heerenveen 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: PSV Eindhoven attack 1.581 / def 1.020 | Heerenveen attack 1.105 / def 1.098 | league avg home 1.634 / away 1.420 • Poisson stance: PSV Eindhoven (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.84
PSV Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Heerenveen xG
75%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
65%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen kick off?
PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Philips Stadion.
What was the final score in PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen?
PSV Eindhoven 3 - 1 Heerenveen.
Where is PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen being played?
The match is being played at Philips Stadion.
What competition is PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen part of?
PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen?
Our statistical model gives PSV Eindhoven a 63% chance of winning, Heerenveen a 20% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making PSV Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen?
Our model estimates a 75% probability that both PSV Eindhoven and Heerenveen will score (BTTS).
Will PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 82%.
What is the head-to-head record between PSV Eindhoven and Heerenveen?
Record (9 meetings): PSV Eindhoven 6W | Draws 2 | Heerenveen 1W.
What form are PSV Eindhoven and Heerenveen in?
PSV Eindhoven (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Heerenveen (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates PSV Eindhoven's attack at 1.58x the league average against Heerenveen's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 2.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Heerenveen's attack versus PSV Eindhoven's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 7.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (7.2%), 2-2 (6.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PSV Eindhoven Win
63%
1.58
17%
5.96
20%
5.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.2%
Home win
2 – 2
6.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.84
PSV Eindhoven xG
Total xG
4.44
1.60
Heerenveen xG
1.58
63%
Home win
5.96
17%
Draw
5.03
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
82%
Over 2.5
1.22
18%
Under 2.5
5.56
65%
Over 3.5
1.54
35%
Under 3.5
2.86
46%
Over 4.5
2.17
54%
Under 4.5
1.85
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
75%
BTTS Yes
1.33
25%
BTTS No
4.02
Clean Sheet
20%
4.96
6%
17.06
Win to Nil
13%
7.83
1%
85.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.6 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 7.2 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 5.1 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.6%.
How many goals are PSV Eindhoven and Heerenveen expected to score?
The model projects 2.84 expected goals for PSV Eindhoven and 1.60 for Heerenveen, a combined total of 4.44.
How confident is the prediction model for PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
PSV Eindhoven come into this having played 57 games, going 44W 6D 7L for 2.42 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-L. The sample for PSV Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Heerenveen sit at 1.30 PPG from 57 outings (20W 14D 23L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Heerenveen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PSV Eindhoven carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.12 PPG clear of Heerenveen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
PSV Eindhoven's home form reads 21W 5D 2L across 28 games on their own ground, a 2.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Heerenveen have taken 0.75 points per game from 28 outings (6W 3D 19L). That's a step down from their 1.30 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Heerenveen's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PSV Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
PSV Eindhoven are averaging 2.98 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Heerenveen are on 1.44 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PSV Eindhoven have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Heerenveen in 61%.
Last 57 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PSV Eindhoven
Blended
Heerenveen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PSV Eindhoven and Heerenveen in coming into this match?
PSV Eindhoven have gone 44W 6D 7L in their last 57 games (2.42 PPG), while Heerenveen have gone 20W 14D 23L in their last 57 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PSV Eindhoven at home or Heerenveen away?
PSV Eindhoven's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PSV Eindhoven at home: 2.43 PPG; Heerenveen away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PSV Eindhoven and Heerenveen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
PSV Eindhoven have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Apr 2024, when PSV Eindhoven won 0-8 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PSV Eindhoven's record when hosting Heerenveen specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
PSV Eindhoven
2
Draws
1
Heerenveen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PSV Eindhoven and Heerenveen?
From 10 meetings on record, PSV Eindhoven have won 7, Heerenveen have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did PSV Eindhoven and Heerenveen last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when PSV Eindhoven 3-1 Heerenveen.
Who has won more matches between PSV Eindhoven and Heerenveen?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time.
Heerenveen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PSV Eindhoven 64%, Heerenveen 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for PSV Eindhoven and 71% for Heerenveen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 61% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heerenveen in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PSV Eindhoven home games / Heerenveen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PSV Eindhoven play Heerenveen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of PSV Eindhoven's games and 54% of Heerenveen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of PSV Eindhoven's matches and 71% of Heerenveen's.
Do PSV Eindhoven and Heerenveen tend to score early?
PSV Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 96% of their recent matches, Heerenveen in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PSV Eindhoven cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Heerenveen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PSV Eindhoven beat Heerenveen 3-1 at Philips Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PSV Eindhoven 2.84 xG and Heerenveen 1.60 xG, a combined 4.44. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PSV Eindhoven attack 1.58 / defence 1.02 against Heerenveen attack 1.10 / defence 1.10, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PSV Eindhoven 63% | Draw 17% | Heerenveen 20%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 82%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 65% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 73% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PSV Eindhoven 84%, Heerenveen 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Heerenveen's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.42 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.