Heerenveen 4-2 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Heerenveen at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees PEC Zwolle travel to Abe Lenstra Stadion to take on Heerenveen. The game is scheduled for Sunday 15 February 2026, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Heerenveen stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Heerenveen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heerenveen at Abe Lenstra Stadion this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, PEC Zwolle have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, PEC Zwolle have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Heerenveen at 1.40 PPG versus PEC Zwolle's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Heerenveen have won 2, PEC Zwolle 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2025, ended 1–2 with PEC Zwolle winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Heerenveen in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
PEC Zwolle in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Heerenveen 61% and PEC Zwolle 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Heerenveen 61% | PEC Zwolle 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heerenveen 2.18 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heerenveen attack 0.970 / defence 1.087 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.951 / defence 1.383. League average goals — home 1.622 / away 1.433. PEC Zwolle bring a strong defensive rating of 1.383 — this is suppressing Heerenveen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 56 Heerenveen games / 56 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heerenveen 53% | Draw 21% | PEC Zwolle 26%. Fair-value odds: Heerenveen 1.89 | Draw 4.76 | PEC Zwolle 3.85. Heerenveen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.66. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.66 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.18 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Heerenveen are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean.
The Poisson model projects 3.66 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Heerenveen 80% | PEC Zwolle 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Abe Lenstra Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Feb 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heerenveen 53% | Draw 21% | PEC Zwolle 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 69% | xG Heerenveen 2.18 / PEC Zwolle 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Heerenveen attack 0.970 / def 1.087 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.951 / def 1.383 | league avg home 1.622 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: Heerenveen (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.18
Heerenveen xG
Expected Goals
1.48
PEC Zwolle xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 15 February 2026 at Abe Lenstra Stadion.
What was the final score in Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle?
Heerenveen 4 - 2 PEC Zwolle.
Where is Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at Abe Lenstra Stadion.
What competition is Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle part of?
Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives Heerenveen a 53% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 26% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Heerenveen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Heerenveen and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heerenveen and PEC Zwolle?
Record (7 meetings): Heerenveen 2W | Draws 3 | PEC Zwolle 2W.
What form are Heerenveen and PEC Zwolle in?
Heerenveen (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-L-W. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Heerenveen's attack rating (0.97) and PEC Zwolle's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 2.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PEC Zwolle's attack versus Heerenveen's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 2-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Heerenveen Win
53%
1.87
21%
4.87
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.18
Heerenveen xG
Total xG
3.66
1.48
PEC Zwolle xG
1.87
53%
Home win
4.87
21%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.18
Clean Sheet
23%
4.40
11%
8.81
Win to Nil
12%
8.24
3%
33.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 8.3 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.0 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.6 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Heerenveen and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 2.18 expected goals for Heerenveen and 1.48 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 3.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Heerenveen's recent record stands at 19W 14D 23L from 56 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Heerenveen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PEC Zwolle, meanwhile, have gone 17W 16D 23L across 56 games — 1.20 PPG, with D-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Heerenveen on 1.27 PPG, PEC Zwolle on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Heerenveen have managed 13W 11D 4L from 28 games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.27 PPG overall — Heerenveen are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
PEC Zwolle's away record stands at 4W 11D 13L across 28 trips, a 0.82 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Heerenveen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Heerenveen are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 1.32 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Heerenveen have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; PEC Zwolle in 61%.
Last 56 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heerenveen
Blended
PEC Zwolle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heerenveen and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
Heerenveen have gone 19W 14D 23L in their last 56 games (1.27 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 17W 16D 23L in their last 56 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heerenveen at home or PEC Zwolle away?
Heerenveen's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heerenveen at home: 1.79 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Heerenveen's record when hosting PEC Zwolle specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Heerenveen
3
Draws
3
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heerenveen and PEC Zwolle?
From 9 meetings on record, Heerenveen have won 3, PEC Zwolle have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Heerenveen and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Heerenveen 0-2 PEC Zwolle.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Heerenveen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Heerenveen at 68%, PEC Zwolle at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Heerenveen) and 61% (PEC Zwolle). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heerenveen home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heerenveen play PEC Zwolle?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Heerenveen's games and 71% of PEC Zwolle's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Heerenveen's matches and 61% of PEC Zwolle's.
Do Heerenveen and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
Heerenveen have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Heerenveen cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over PEC Zwolle.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heerenveen beat PEC Zwolle 4-2 at Abe Lenstra Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heerenveen 2.18 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.48 xG, a combined 3.66. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Heerenveen beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heerenveen attack 0.97 / defence 1.09 against PEC Zwolle attack 0.95 / defence 1.38, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heerenveen 53% | Draw 21% | PEC Zwolle 26%, with Heerenveen to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heerenveen 61%, PEC Zwolle 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heerenveen's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Heerenveen 1.27 PPG, PEC Zwolle 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Heerenveen win broke the near-deadlock. Heerenveen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.