🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Ajax at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 24 as Ajax welcome NEC Nijmegen to Johan Cruijff Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 February 2026 at 20:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Ajax stand at 6W 4D 0L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Ajax's home record at Johan Cruijff Arena: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Eredivisie games this season, NEC Nijmegen have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Eredivisie this season, NEC Nijmegen have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form comparison is too close to call — 2.20 PPG (Ajax) versus 2.10 (NEC Nijmegen). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ajax register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, NEC Nijmegen in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Ajax: 5 wins from 9 previous clashes against 1 for NEC Nijmegen, with 3 draws across those contests.

The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Ajax and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

In-Play Data

Ajax trading profile (57 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 92% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

NEC Nijmegen trading profile (57 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajax 58% versus NEC Nijmegen 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajax 58% | NEC Nijmegen 68%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ajax 2.04 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajax attack 1.151 / defence 0.844 | NEC Nijmegen attack 1.366 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.630 / away 1.405. NEC Nijmegen have an above-average attack strength of 1.366 — the away xG of 1.62 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 57 Ajax games / 57 NEC Nijmegen games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ajax 48% | Draw 21% | NEC Nijmegen 31%. Fair-value odds: Ajax 2.08 | Draw 4.76 | NEC Nijmegen 3.23. Ajax hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.66. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.66 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.04 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Ajax as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.66 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ajax 60% | NEC Nijmegen 90% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights