NAC Breda 1-0 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates NAC Breda at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this NAC Breda vs FC Volendam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 24 as NAC Breda welcome FC Volendam to Rat Verlegh Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
NAC Breda — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NAC Breda at Rat Verlegh Stadion this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, FC Volendam have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Volendam away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — NAC Breda at 0.70 PPG versus FC Volendam's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, NAC Breda have won 0, FC Volendam 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 1–2 with FC Volendam winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
NAC Breda trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
FC Volendam trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NAC Breda 56% and FC Volendam 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 51% | FC Volendam 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.50 xG and FC Volendam 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.807 / defence 1.147 | FC Volendam attack 0.618 / defence 1.136. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.414. Data: 57 NAC Breda games / 23 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 49% | Draw 26% | FC Volendam 25%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | FC Volendam 4.00. NAC Breda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is NAC Breda at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NAC Breda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: NAC Breda 60% | FC Volendam 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 49% | Draw 26% | FC Volendam 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG NAC Breda 1.50 / FC Volendam 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.807 / def 1.147 | FC Volendam attack 0.618 / def 1.136 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.414 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.00
FC Volendam xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs FC Volendam kick off?
NAC Breda vs FC Volendam kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs FC Volendam?
NAC Breda 1 - 0 FC Volendam.
Where is NAC Breda vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs FC Volendam part of?
NAC Breda vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 49% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both NAC Breda and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and FC Volendam?
Record (3 meetings): NAC Breda 0W | Draws 1 | FC Volendam 2W.
What form are NAC Breda and FC Volendam in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. FC Volendam (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
NAC Breda's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against FC Volendam's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, FC Volendam's attack versus NAC Breda's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
49%
2.05
26%
3.85
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
2.50
1.00
FC Volendam xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
18%
5.60
6%
17.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.3 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.00 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs FC Volendam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
NAC Breda come into this having played 57 games, going 12W 16D 29L for 0.91 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-W. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Volendam sit at 1.81 PPG from 57 outings (31W 10D 16L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Volendam carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.90 PPG clear of NAC Breda — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
NAC Breda's home form reads 8W 9D 11L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Volendam have taken 1.50 points per game from 28 outings (12W 6D 10L).
The Goals Picture
NAC Breda are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.84 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam in 65%.
Last 57 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Blended
FC Volendam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 12W 16D 29L in their last 57 games (0.91 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 31W 10D 16L in their last 57 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or FC Volendam away?
FC Volendam's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.18 PPG; FC Volendam away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between NAC Breda and FC Volendam runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
NAC Breda's record when hosting FC Volendam specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
NAC Breda
1
Draws
2
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and FC Volendam?
From 4 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 1, FC Volendam have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when NAC Breda 1-0 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and FC Volendam?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 64%, FC Volendam 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (NAC Breda) and 68% (FC Volendam). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Volendam in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of NAC Breda's games and 61% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of NAC Breda's matches and 68% of FC Volendam's.
Do NAC Breda and FC Volendam tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as NAC Breda edge out FC Volendam 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat FC Volendam 1-0 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.50 xG and FC Volendam 1.00 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC Volendam landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.81 / defence 1.15 against FC Volendam attack 0.62 / defence 1.14, drawn from 57/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 49% | Draw 26% | FC Volendam 25%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 51%, FC Volendam 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Volendam's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 0.91. Form was overturned, with NAC Breda winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. NAC Breda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.