Utrecht 2-0 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Utrecht at 63% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Utrecht vs NAC Breda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
NAC Breda make the trip to Stadion Galgenwaard to face Utrecht in Eredivisie (matchday 32). The match kicks off on Saturday 2 May 2026 at 16:30 UK time.
Form
Utrecht (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Utrecht's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
NAC Breda have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
NAC Breda's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Utrecht. A 1.10 PPG lead over NAC Breda (2.00 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Utrecht edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Dec 2025, ended Utrecht 1–1 NAC Breda — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Utrecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
NAC Breda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Utrecht 62% versus NAC Breda 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Utrecht 55% | NAC Breda 51%). Note also that NAC Breda surrender HT leads in 67% of cases while Utrecht recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Utrecht 1.97 xG and NAC Breda 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Utrecht attack 1.006 / defence 0.812 | NAC Breda attack 0.730 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.728 / away 1.265. NAC Breda's attack rating of 0.730 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.75. Data: built from Utrecht's last 65 games and NAC Breda's last 65.
Result probabilities: Utrecht 63% | Draw 26% | NAC Breda 11%. Fair-value odds: Utrecht 1.58 | Draw 3.83 | NAC Breda 9.46. The model has a clear lean to Utrecht (63%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Utrecht are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Utrecht 50% (last 10 home games) | NAC Breda 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Utrecht vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 32 | Venue: Stadion Galgenwaard • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Utrecht 63% | Draw 26% | NAC Breda 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Utrecht 1.97 / NAC Breda 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Utrecht attack 1.006 / def 0.812 | NAC Breda attack 0.730 / def 1.135 | league avg home 1.728 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: Utrecht (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
0.75
NAC Breda xG
48%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Utrecht vs NAC Breda FAQs
What time does Utrecht vs NAC Breda kick off?
Utrecht vs NAC Breda kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What was the final score in Utrecht vs NAC Breda?
Utrecht 2 - 0 NAC Breda.
Where is Utrecht vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What competition is Utrecht vs NAC Breda part of?
Utrecht vs NAC Breda is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 32) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Utrecht vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Utrecht a 63% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 11% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Utrecht vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Utrecht and NAC Breda will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Utrecht vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Utrecht's attack at 1.01x the league average against NAC Breda's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.97 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — NAC Breda's attack (0.73x) against Utrecht's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from Utrecht's last 65 games and NAC Breda's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 1-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Utrecht Win
63%
1.58
26%
3.83
11%
9.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Utrecht xG
Total xG
2.72
0.75
NAC Breda xG
1.58
63%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
9.46
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
47%
2.12
14%
7.19
Win to Nil
30%
3.34
1%
67.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 9.7 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.4 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Utrecht vs NAC Breda Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Utrecht vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Utrecht and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Utrecht and 0.75 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Utrecht vs NAC Breda?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Utrecht's recent record stands at 30W 18D 17L from 65 games, a 1.66 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five.
NAC Breda, meanwhile, have gone 13W 19D 33L across 65 games — 0.89 PPG, with L-L-D-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Utrecht by 0.77 — a real, if not enormous, edge over NAC Breda heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Utrecht have managed 17W 6D 9L from their last 32 home games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
NAC Breda's away record stands at 3W 8D 21L across their last 32 away games, a 0.53 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Utrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Utrecht are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 0.98 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Utrecht have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Utrecht
Current Season
NAC Breda
Current Season
Utrecht (Home) vs NAC Breda (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Utrecht
Current Season
NAC Breda
Current Season
❓ Utrecht vs NAC Breda Form FAQs
What form are Utrecht and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Utrecht have gone 30W 18D 17L in their last 65 games (1.66 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 13W 19D 33L in their last 65 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Utrecht at home or NAC Breda away?
Utrecht's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Utrecht at home: 1.78 PPG; NAC Breda away: 0.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2024 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was on 2 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Utrecht have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against NAC Breda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Utrecht
1
Draws
0
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Utrecht vs NAC Breda H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and NAC Breda?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Utrecht have won 3, NAC Breda have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Utrecht and NAC Breda last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 May 2026: Utrecht 2-0 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between Utrecht and NAC Breda?
Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Utrecht 50%, NAC Breda 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Utrecht) and 56% (NAC Breda).
On the defensive side: Utrecht keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; NAC Breda in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Utrecht home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Utrecht vs NAC Breda Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Utrecht and NAC Breda matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Utrecht's recent matches and 47% of NAC Breda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Utrecht and NAC Breda matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Utrecht's recent games and 56% of NAC Breda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Utrecht and NAC Breda matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Utrecht's recent matches and 75% of NAC Breda's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Utrecht cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over NAC Breda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utrecht beat NAC Breda 2-0 at Stadion Galgenwaard, Regular Season - 32, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Utrecht 1.97 xG and NAC Breda 0.75 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utrecht attack 1.01 / defence 0.81 against NAC Breda attack 0.73 / defence 1.14, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Utrecht 63% | Draw 26% | NAC Breda 11%, with Utrecht to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utrecht 55%, NAC Breda 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Utrecht's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
NAC Breda's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Utrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 0.89. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Utrecht (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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